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. 2021 Aug 16;11(8):e047369. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047369

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Contribution of changes in demographics, health characteristics, testing capacity, hospital occupancy and contextual factors, and epidemiological changes to changes in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation rates between 20 March and 19 April 2020 and between 20 August and 19 September 2020. The red dot represents the observed change in rate of outcomes between the two periods, and the blue dot represents the change predicted based on demographics, health, contextual characteristics, COVID-19 testing capacity and hospital occupancy. Hospital occupancy is not considered as predictor for the hospitalisation outcome model. Epidemiological changes collectively represent the difference between predicted and observed rates and reflect the summative contribution of factors that are not accounted for in prediction models.