Table 1. Estimates of Parameters Used in the Model.
| Parameter | Base-case value | Range | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compliance with screening | 0.49 | 0.30-0.80 | Triangular (0.30, 0.49, 0.80) | Wei et al,18 2015; Feng et al,28 2015; Wang et al,29 2015 |
| Compliance with reexamination | 0.67 | 0.40-0.90 | Triangular (0.40, 0.67, 0.90) | Yang et al,15 2015 |
| Endoscopic examination characteristics | ||||
| Sensitivity for EC | 0.96 | 0.88-0.99 | Triangular (0.88, 0.96, 0.99) | Chang et al,11 2012; Dawsey et al,30 1998; Nagami et al,31 2014 |
| Specificity for EC | 0.90 | 0.59-1.00 | Triangular (0.59, 0.90, 1.00) | Chang et al,11 2012; Dawsey et al,30 1998; Nagami et al,31 2014 |
| Sensitivity for GC | 0.89 | 0.70-0.98 | Triangular (0.70, 0.89, 0.98) | Zhou et al,12 2013; Hamashima et al,8 2018; Yeh et al,32 2016; Lee et al,33 2007; Hamashima et al,34 2013 |
| Specificity for GC | 1.00 | 0.90-1.00 | Triangular (0.90, 1.00, 1.00) | Zhou et al,12 2013; Hamashima et al,8 2018; Yeh et al,32 2016; Lee et al,33 2007; Hamashima et al,34 2013 |
| Endoscopic examination complications | 0.00009 | 0-0.002 | Triangular (0, 0.00009, 0.002) | Zeng et al,24 2020; Yeh et al,32 2016; Lee et al,33 2007; Espino et al,35 2012 |
| Annual self-initiated examination | ||||
| Severe esophageal dysplasia and CIS or HGIN and CIS | 0.01 | 0.005-0.02 | Triangular (0.005, 0.01, 0.02) | Chang et al,11 2012 |
| Early EC or GC | 0.20 | 0.10-0.40 | Triangular (0.10, 0.20, 0.40) | Chang et al,11 2012 |
| Advanced EC or GC | 0.70 | 0.56-0.90 | Triangular (0.56, 0.70, 0.90) | Chang et al,11 2012 |
| Compliance with treatment | ||||
| Severe esophageal dysplasia or CIS | 0.7458 | 0.5625-0.9654 | β (31.72, 10.81) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Early EC | 0.9405 | 0.7149-1.0000 | β (8.17, 0.52) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Advanced EC | 0.9643 | 0.8393-1.0000 | β (16.99, 0.63) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| HGIN or CIS | 0.5455 | 0.4425-0.7746 | β (92.43, 77.01) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Early GC | 0.9000 | 0.6792-1.0000 | β (12.41, 1.38) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Advanced GC | 0.9643 | 0.8393-1.0000 | β (16.99, 0.63) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Costs, $ | ||||
| Screening mobilization and administration per capita | 1.05 | ±50% | γ (0.16, 0.15) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Endoscopic examination | 47.87 | ±50% | γ (46.57, 0.97) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Treatment for endoscopic complications | 113.68 | ±50% | γ (5.82, 0.05) | Chen et al,23 2017 |
| Initial treatment | ||||
| Severe esophageal dysplasia or CIS | 1604 | ±50% | γ (3.33, 0.002) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Early EC | 7732 | ±50% | γ (2.33, 3.01) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Advanced EC | 7320 | ±50% | γ (3.33, 4.55) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| HGIN or CIS | 1423 | ±50% | γ (1.41, 9.88) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Early GC | 7548 | ±50% | γ (4.61, 6.11) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Advanced GC | 7086 | ±50% | γ (5.96, 8.41) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Annual health care | ||||
| Severe esophageal dysplasia or CIS | 216 | ±50% | γ (1.22, 0.006) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Early EC | 367 | ±50% | γ (1.23, 0.003) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Advanced EC | 342 | ±50% | γ (2.05, 0.006) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| HGIN or CIS | 243 | ±50% | γ (1.24, 0.005) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Early GC | 409 | ±50% | γ (1.18, 0.003) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Advanced GC | 435 | ±50% | γ (1.19, 0.003) | Yang et al,36 2018 |
| Utility scores | ||||
| Mild esophageal dysplasia | 1.00 | 0.98-1.00 | Triangular (0.98, 1.00, 1.00) | Sharaiha et al,37 2014; Inadomi et al,38 2009 |
| Moderate esophageal dysplasia | 1.00 | 0.98-1.00 | Triangular (0.98, 1.00, 1.00) | Sharaiha et al,37 2014; Inadomi et al,38 2009 |
| Severe esophageal dysplasia or CIS | 0.84 | 0.79-0.89 | β (3.57, 0.68) | Liu et al,39 2018 |
| Early EC | 0.70 | 0.66-0.74 | β (2.63, 1.13) | Liu et al,39 2018 |
| Advanced EC | 0.61 | 0.56-0.66 | β (1.12, 0.71) | Liu et al,39 2018 |
| LGIN | 1.00 | 0.98-1.00 | Triangular (0.98, 1.00, 1.00) | Sharaiha et al,37 2014; Inadomi et al,38 2009 |
| HGIN or CIS | 0.92 | 0.86-0.99 | β (2.53, 0.22) | Xia et al,40 2020 |
| Early GC | 0.75 | 0.71-0.78 | β (3.15, 1.05) | Xia et al,40 2020 |
| Advanced GC | 0.57 | 0.53-0.62 | β (1.35, 1.02) | Xia et al,40 2020 |
| Discount rate | 0.05 | 0-0.08 | NA | Weinstein et al,41 1996 |
Abbreviations: CIS, carcinoma in situ; EC, esophageal cancer; GC, gastric cancer; HGIN, high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia; LGIN, low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia; NA, not applicable.