Table 2.

Summary of the main metrics considered for the assessment and comparison of the spatio-temporal models fitted, each one based on a different neighborhood matrix (a brief description of each of the matrices is provided). Two groups of matrices are identified according to the distinct performance of the models

Group	Matrix	DIC	WAIC	LPML	Sensitivity	Specificity	MCC	$I_{\mathit{st}}$ (p-value)
1	$C_1$ (first-order contiguity)	1666.625	1632.306	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.013 (0.357)
1	$C_2$ (second-order contiguity)	1666.710	1633.549	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.012 (0.359)
1	$C_3$ (third-order contiguity)	1666.811	1634.228	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.012 (0.359)
1	$D_5$ (inverse distance)	1666.250	1631.888	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.015 (0.342)
1	$D_6$ (“Gravity”)	1666.250	1631.888	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.015 (0.342)
1	$D_7$ (“Entropy”)	1666.250	1631.888	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.015 (0.342)
1	S (sociodemography)	1666.250	1631.888	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.015 (0.342)
1	$H_2$ (hybrid between $D_5$ and S)	1666.250	1631.888	0.209	0.729	0.997	0.808	0.015 (0.342)
2	$D_1$ (1-nearest neighbors)	2102.532	2233.515	0.101	0.757	0.983	0.798	0.192 (0.000)
2	$D_2$ (3-nearest neighbors)	3770.938	3851.917	0.073	0.738	0.930	0.683	0.331 (0.000)
2	$D_3$ (5-nearest neighbors)	3739.163	3875.593	0.073	0.729	0.940	0.693	0.334 (0.000)
2	$D_4$ (7-nearest neighbors)	3673.010	3861.366	0.072	0.738	0.953	0.725	0.340 (0.000)
2	F (mobility flows)	3766.721	3866.660	0.072	0.738	0.933	0.689	0.332 (0.000)
2	$H_1$ (hybrid between $D_5$ and F)	3766.721	3866.660	0.072	0.738	0.933	0.689	0.332 (0.000)
2	$H_3$ (hybrid between $D_5$, F and S)	3766.721	3866.660	0.072	0.738	0.933	0.689	0.332 (0.000)