Fig. 4.

This figure shows the projected total cumulative incidence at 1 month across scenarios for COVID-19 control based on case isolation after PCR diagnosis. Panel A (left) shows the impact on cumulative incidence based on timing of mass (asymptomatic) screening against intensity of isolation of diagnosed cases (where 0 = full isolation and 1 = no isolation); this highlights that incidence is minimized by screening begins immediately and is associated with complete case isolation (mean incidence in bottom left = 2244). Panel B (middle) shows the impact on cumulative incidence based on timing of mass screening against PCR sensitivity, where the base sensitivity is 80 % and the diagnosed isolation intensity is 0; this highlights that incidence is minimized when screening begins immediately and PCR sensitivity is perfect (mean incidence in top left = 0). Panel C (right) shows the impact on cumulative incidence based on diagnosed isolation intensity and PCR sensitivity, with mass screening starting at Day 1; this highlights that incidence is minimized when isolation intensity is highest and PCR sensitivity is perfect (mean incidence in top left = 0). Note that scales of the cumulative incidence outputs vary across panels; different scales were used to maximize the clarity of sensitivity analyses.