Table 3. Assessment of model calibration in contemporary cohort by comparing predicted risk to actual risk in predefined risk strata.

Mental health specialty	90-day suicide attempt			90-day suicide death
Risk score percentile strata	Predicted risk a (%)	Observed risk b (%)	% of all attempts c	Predicted risk a (%)	Observed risk b (%)	% of all deaths c
≥99.5th	17.4	12.0	15	0.84	0.48	12
99–99.5th	9.0	7.2	7	0.36	0.35	9
95–99th	3.9	3.5	26	0.15	0.07	14
90–95th	1.6	1.7	15	0.07	0.05	13
75–90th	0.8	0.9	20	0.03	0.02	20
50–75th	0.3	0.3	11	0.01	0.01	17
<50th	0.1	0.1	6	0.00	0.00	15
General medical	90-day suicide attempt			90-day suicide death
Risk score percentile strata	Predicted risk a (%)	Observed risk b (%)	% of All attempts c	Predicted risk a (%)	Observed risk a (%)	% of all deaths c
≥99.5th	10.6	9.2	21	0.50	0.13	7
99–99.5th	3.9	3.7	8	0.20	0.05	3
95–99th	1.5	1.7	28	0.08	0.07	28
90–95th	0.6	0.7	13	0.04	0.03	13
75–90th	0.3	0.3	14	0.02	0.02	24
50–75th	0.1	0.1	9	0.01	0.01	13
<50th	0.1	0.0	6	0.00	0.00	12

^aAverage predicted risk among visits in this stratum.

^bProportion of visits in this stratum with an event within 90 days.

^cAmong all visits in the entire sample with an event within 90 days, the percentage of such visits within this stratum.

Note: Cut-points used to define risk score percentile strata are based on the distribution of risk predictions as observed in the original model development sample.