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. 2021 Jun 3;5(8):1027–1045. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01108-6

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 6 — a,b, Projected EBF prevalence for 2030 at the national (a) and district (b) levels. c, Probability of meeting the WHO GNT of at least 70% EBF prevalence by 2030 at the district level. Dark blue indicates a high probability (>95% posterior probability) and dark red indicates a low probability (<5% posterior probability) of meeting the WHO GNT by 2030. Maps reflect administrative boundaries, land cover, lakes and population; grey-coloured grid cells had fewer than ten people per 1 × 1-km grid cell and were classified as ‘barren or sparsely vegetated’ or were not included in this analysis^50–55.