Table 2.
Estimated probabilities of treatments for localized prostate cancer by age and race group
| Gleason score of 6 or below | Gleason Score of 7 or Above | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
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| Prostatectomy | IMRT | AS | No treatment | Prostatectomy | IMRT | AS | No Treatment | ||
|
| |||||||||
| Age group 66–74 | 2004–2005 | 0.184[0.18,0.19] | 0.134[0.13,0.14] | 0.193[0.19,0.20] | 0.078[0.07,0.08] | 0.313[0.30,0.32] | 0.151[0.15,0.16] | 0.073[0.07,0.08] | 0.072[0.07,0.08] |
| 2006–2007 | 0.182[0.18,0.19] | 0.179[0.17,0.19] | 0.221[0.21,0.23] | 0.080[0.08,0.08] | 0.334[0.33,0.34] | 0.210[0.20,0.22] | 0.074[0.07,0.08] | 0.064[0.06,0.07] | |
| 2008–2009 | 0.177[0.17,0.19] | 0.194[0.19,0.20] | 0.278[0.27,0.29] | 0.081[0.08,0.08] | 0.335[0.33,0.34] | 0.262[0.26,0.27] | 0.084[0.08,0.09] | 0.063[0.06,0.07] | |
| 2010–2011 | 0.211[0.20,0.22] | 0.197[0.19,0.20] | 0.323[0.31,0.33] | 0.078[0.07,0.08] | 0.315[0.31,0.32] | 0.312[0.30,0.32] | 0.086[0.08,0.09] | 0.062[0.06,0.07] | |
| 2012–2013 | 0.176[0.17,0.19] | 0.174[0.17,0.18] | 0.425[0.41,0.44] | 0.080[0.07,0.08] | 0.322[0.31,0.33] | 0.316[0.31,0.32] | 0.094[0.09,0.10] | 0.064[0.06,0.07] | |
| 2014–2015 | 0.149[0.14,0.16] | 0.135[0.13,0.14] | 0.494[0.48,0.51] | 0.110[0.10,0.12] | 0.350[0.34,0.36] | 0.297[0.29,0.30] | 0.094[0.09,0.10] | 0.077[0.07,0.08] | |
| Age group 75+ | 2004–2005 | 0.038[0.04,0.04] | 0.130[0.12,0.14] | 0.292[0.28,0.30] | 0.106[0.10,0.11] | 0.056[0.05,0.06] | 0.163[0.16,0.17] | 0.116[0.11,0.12] | 0.081[0.08,0.08] |
| 2006–2007 | 0.037[0.03,0.04] | 0.172[0.17,0.18] | 0.330[0.32,0.34] | 0.107[0.10,0.11] | 0.063[0.06,0.07] | 0.239[0.23,0.24] | 0.124[0.12,0.13] | 0.075[0.07,0.08] | |
| 2008–2009 | 0.035[0.03,0.04] | 0.182[0.17,0.19] | 0.403[0.39,0.41] | 0.106[0.10,0.11] | 0.065[0.06,0.07] | 0.305[0.30,0.31] | 0.143[0.14,0.15] | 0.075[0.07,0.08] | |
| 2010–2011 | 0.042[0.04,0.05] | 0.186[0.18,0.19] | 0.473[0.46,0.48] | 0.103[0.10,0.11] | 0.061[0.06,0.06] | 0.360[0.35,0.37] | 0.146[0.14,0.15] | 0.074[0.07,0.08] | |
| 2012–2013 | 0.033[0.03,0.04] | 0.153[0.14,0.16] | 0.578[0.57,0.59] | 0.098[0.09,0.10] | 0.063[0.06,0.07] | 0.370[0.36,0.38] | 0.163[0.16,0.17] | 0.076[0.07,0.08] | |
| 2014–2015 | 0.026[0.02,0.03] | 0.112[0.10,0.12] | 0.632[0.62,0.64] | 0.130[0.12,0.14] | 0.071[0.07,0.07] | 0.360[0.35,0.37] | 0.168[0.16,0.18] | 0.093[0.09,0.10] | |
| Number of cases | 73435 | 104862 | |||||||
| Non-Hispanic Black | 2004–2005 | 0.095[0.09,0.10] | 0.137[0.13,0.15] | 0.209[0.20,0.22] | 0.128[0.12,0.14] | 0.127[0.12,0.13] | 0.157[0.15,0.16] | 0.107[0.10,0.11] | 0.119[0.11,0.13] |
| 2006–2007 | 0.095[0.09,0.10] | 0.183[0.17,0.19] | 0.237[0.23,0.25] | 0.131[0.12,0.14] | 0.142[0.13,0.15] | 0.226[0.22,0.24] | 0.113[0.11,0.12] | 0.110[0.10,0.12] | |
| 2008–2009 | 0.098[0.09,0.11] | 0.198[0.19,0.21] | 0.292[0.28,0.30] | 0.131[0.12,0.14] | 0.153[0.15,0.16] | 0.284[0.27,0.29] | 0.126[0.12,0.13] | 0.107[0.10,0.11] | |
| 2010–2011 | 0.125[0.12,0.14] | 0.206[0.19,0.22] | 0.341[0.33,0.36] | 0.125[0.12,0.13] | 0.141[0.13,0.15] | 0.336[0.32,0.35] | 0.129[0.12,0.14] | 0.106[0.10,0.11] | |
| 2012–2013 | 0.106[0.10,0.12] | 0.180[0.17,0.19] | 0.438[0.42,0.45] | 0.123[0.11,0.13] | 0.151[0.14,0.16] | 0.342[0.33,0.35] | 0.141[0.13,0.15] | 0.107[0.10,0.11] | |
| 2014–2015 | 0.090[0.08,0.10] | 0.136[0.13,0.15] | 0.493[0.48,0.51] | 0.166[0.15,0.18] | 0.166[0.16,0.17] | 0.326[0.31,0.34] | 0.143[0.13,0.15] | 0.127[0.12,0.13] | |
| Non–Hispanic White | 2004–2005 | 0.127[0.12,0.13] | 0.129[0.12,0.13] | 0.240[0.23,0.25] | 0.083[0.08,0.09] | 0.191[0.19,0.20] | 0.157[0.15,0.16] | 0.093[0.09,0.10] | 0.069[0.07,0.07] |
| 2006–2007 | 0.126[0.12,0.13] | 0.173[0.17,0.18] | 0.271[0.26,0.28] | 0.084[0.08,0.09] | 0.211[0.21,0.22] | 0.224[0.22,0.23] | 0.097[0.09,0.10] | 0.063[0.06,0.07] | |
| 2008–2009 | 0.129[0.12,0.13] | 0.185[0.18,0.19] | 0.331[0.32,0.34] | 0.083[0.08,0.09] | 0.226[0.22,0.23] | 0.281[0.27,0.29] | 0.108[0.10,0.11] | 0.061[0.06,0.06] | |
| 2010–2011 | 0.162[0.16,0.17] | 0.189[0.18,0.20] | 0.379[0.37,0.39] | 0.078[0.07,0.08] | 0.210[0.20,0.22] | 0.334[0.33,0.34] | 0.111[0.11,0.12] | 0.061[0.06,0.06] | |
| 2012–2013 | 0.136[0.13,0.14] | 0.162[0.15,0.17] | 0.481[0.47,0.49] | 0.078[0.07,0.08] | 0.224[0.22,0.23] | 0.338[0.33,0.35] | 0.121[0.12,0.13] | 0.062[0.06,0.07] | |
| 2014–2015 | 0.117[0.11,0.12] | 0.124[0.12,0.13] | 0.545[0.53,0.56] | 0.106[0.10,0.11] | 0.245[0.24,0.25] | 0.322[0.31,0.33] | 0.123[0.12,0.13] | 0.075[0.07,0.08] | |
| Number of cases | 68759 | 97366 | |||||||
Note: 95% Confidence interval in Bracket; IMRT = intensity-modulated radiation therapy; AS = active surveillance; Estimated probabilities were calculated by the coefficients from the multinomial logistic regression models described in the Outcome Measures and Statistical Analysis section. The original coefficients are in Supplement Table 2.