TABLE 5.
Cross-Equation Estimates of the Average Effect of Welfare Reform on Youth Behaviors Event Study: Lead and Lag Effects of Welfare Reform, MTF 1991–2006
| Boys, Grades 10 and 12 and ≤17Years |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Model Outcomes |
1 Delinquent Behaviors |
2 Substance Use |
3 All Behaviors |
| Average DDD effect | |||
| Pre WR 5 + Years * Target | 0.0833 (0.0562) |
0.0897** (0.0398) |
0.0862** (0.0389) |
| Pre WR 4 Years * Target | 0.00004 (0.0638) |
0.0544 (0.0370) |
0.0242 (0.0390) |
| Pre WR 3 Years * Target | −0.0110 (0.0561) |
0.0457 (0.0414) |
0.0142 (0.0385) |
| Pre WR 2 Years * Target | 0.0603 (0.0512) |
0.0191 (0.0356) |
0.0420 (0.0354) |
| Pre WR 1 Year * Target | — | — | — |
| Joint significance on leads [p-value] | [0.1041] | [0.1941] | [0.1294] |
| Post WR 1 Year * Target | 0.1243* (0.0669) |
0.0331 (0.0413) |
0.0838* (0.0477) |
| Post WR 2 Years * Target | 0.1213 (0.0863) |
0.0972** (0.0464) |
0.1106* (0.0600) |
| Post WR 3 Years * Target | 0.1512* (0.0814) |
0.0886** (0.0386) |
0.1234** (0.0565) |
| Post WR 4 + Years * Target | 0.1276*** (0.0439) |
0.0991*** (0.0264) |
0.1150*** (0.0276) |
Notes: The target group consists of children with unmarried mothers with a high school education or less; the comparison group consists of children of married mothers with a high school education or less. Delinquent behaviors are skipping school, damaging property, fighting, stealing, and hurting someone. Substance use behaviors are using marijuana, consuming alcohol, smoking, and using illicit drugs. All behaviors include all of the delinquent and substance use behaviors. Models are jointly estimated using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) framework. All outcomes are redefined as standard normal deviates (see text). Each column in each panel presents estimates from a separate model. Estimates of the average effects of welfare reform (WR) across all noted outcomes are reported, with state-clustered standard errors reported in parentheses. All specifications control for the child’s age, grade, and race/ethnicity; the mother’s education and marital status; annual state-level measures (unemployment rate, poverty rate, personal income per capita, Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) rate, refundable EITC, minimum wage, number Medicaid beneficiaries, numbers of National School Lunch and School Breakfast Program participants, and population); and indicators for state, year, and month. Asterisks denote significance as follows:
p-value≤.01
.01<p-value≤.05
.05<p-value≤.10.