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The relationship between daily incidence rates, the number of arrivals and the expected number of importations. We assume that arrivals spent an average of 15 days in the source country. Darker areas of the contour plot indicate a higher number of expected importations. Stars mark the expected number of importations from several countries during October 2020 if borders were to re-open at the start of the month. The results are averaged over 1,000 model runs
