TABLE 3.
Predictor | Total (N) | Outcome: Initiation rate per 100 PY | Unstratified model: 2004–2016 |
Model stratified by period of enrolment |
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unadjusted HR |
p | Adjusted HR |
p | 2004–2010 |
2011–2016 |
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HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | Adjusted HR | 95% CI | Adjusted HR | 95% CI | |||||
Enrolment period | ||||||||||||
2011–2016 | 1745 | 27.0 | 1 | (base) | 1 | (base) | - | - | - | - | ||
2004–2010 | 1210 | 15.8 | 0.60 | 0.54–0.68 | 0.000 | 0.63 | 0.55–0.72 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - |
Duration of pre-ART | ||||||||||||
< 1 | 2127 | 20.7 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | - | - | - | - |
1–2 | 269 | 21.1 | 1.02 | 0.86–1.20 | 0.851 | 1.01 | 0.85–1.20 | 0.909 | - | - | - | - |
3–5 | 344 | 19.2 | 1.06 | 0.91–1.23 | 0.491 | 0.99 | 0.85–1.16 | 0.905 | - | - | - | - |
> 5 | 215 | 21.6 | 0.96 | 0.76–1.20 | 0.706 | 0.84 | 0.66–1.06 | 0.137 | - | - | - | - |
Baseline WHO stage | ||||||||||||
I | 1049 | 24.4 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
II | 1219 | 18.7 | 0.81 | 0.72–0.91 | 0.000 | 0.87 | 0.77–0.98 | 0.023 | - | - | - | - |
III | 516 | 19.6 | 0.83 | 0.72–0.96 | 0.011 | 0.92 | 0.79–1.06 | 0.255 | - | - | - | - |
IV | 171 | 19.1 | 0.88 | 0.68–1.13 | 0.333 | 0.92 | 0.72–1.19 | 0.538 | - | - | - | - |
Adherence | ||||||||||||
Good | 2219 | 21.7 | 1 | (base) | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Poor | 615 | 17.5 | 0.96 | 0.85–1.07 | 0.432 | 0.96 | 0.85–1.07 | 0.462 | - | - | - | - |
District category | ||||||||||||
Sparse | 1042 | 16.9 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | (base) | 1 | (base) |
Dense | 1913 | 15.4 | 0.77 | 0.69–0.86 | 0.000 | 0.58 | 0.42–0.78 | 0.000 | 1.03 | 0.46–2.30 | 0.59 | 0.38–0.94 |
Duration on ART† | ||||||||||||
0–4 | 1454 | 16.0 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | - |
³5 | 1501 | 15.8 | 0.76 | 0.67–0.86 | 0.000 | 1.40 | 1.16–1.70 | 0.001 | 3.34 | 2.06–5.43 | 1.33 | 1.00–1.76 |
Geographic location # Duration of ART | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | - |
Sparse | 1042 | 16.9 | - | - | - | 0.81 | 0.83–0.95 | 0.000 | 0.86 | 0.77–0.9 | 0.95 | 0.85–1.06 |
Dense | 1913 | 15.4 | - | - | - | 0.86 | 0.79–0.89 | 0.000 | 0.86 | 0.81–0.9 | 1.01 | 0.89–1.14 |
Gender† | ||||||||||||
Female | 1942 | 16.1 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | - | - | - | - |
Male | 1013 | 15.4 | 0.97 | 0.87–1.08 | 0.568 | 0.97 | 0.88–1.07 | 0.579 | - | - | - | - |
Age† | ||||||||||||
Child/adolescent | 107 | 9.7 | 1 | (base) | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | 1 | (base) | |
Adult | 2848 | 16.1 | 1.63 | 1.13–2.33 | 0.008 | 1.71 | 1.20–2.47 | 0.003 | 1.64 | 1.02–2.6 | 1.78 | 1.00–3.15 |
Baseline CD4 count† | ||||||||||||
1–100 | 639 | 15.9 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | - | - | - | - |
101–350 | 1714 | 15.9 | 1.10 | 0.98–1.25 | 0.116 | 1.08 | 0.95–1.22 | 0.231 | - | - | - | - |
351–500 | 357 | 17.3 | 1.25 | 1.03–1.52 | 0.024 | 1.11 | 0.91–1.35 | 0.316 | - | - | - | - |
501–1572 | 245 | 14.6 | 1.07 | 0.85–1.36 | 0.553 | 1.02 | 0.81–1.30 | 0.841 | - | - | - | - |
Treatment failure† | ||||||||||||
No | 2909 | 18.2 | 1 | (base) | - | 1 | (base) | - | - | - | - | - |
Yes | 46 | 15.9 | 0.74 | 0.53–1.04 | 0.083 | 0.79 | 0.56–1.11 | 0.176 | - | - | - | - |
WHO, World Health Organization; ART, antiretroviral therapy; N, number of patients; PLHIV, people living with HIV; # denotes interaction of term; CI, confidence interval; HR, Hazard Ratio.
, Predictors insignificant when controlled for baseline WHO clinical Stage, duration of ART, district category and adherence to ART.