Fig. 2.

Data, model simulations and projections of total cases, daily cases, hospital and ICU occupation and dead, for each country. Reported are: total cases (A, B, C), daily new cases (D, E, F), hospital occupation (G, H, I), ICU occupation (J, K, L) and deaths (M, N, O). Such values are respectively estimated from Appendix Eqs. I.2–I.6, for each country (see columns). In addition to model simulation, raw data are shown (red stars), together with their weekly moving average (gray dots). Panels A, B, C also report (in violet) the cumulative number of estimated undetected cases, obtained as the sum of undetected cases being either infectious, recovering, recovered or dead, see Appendices. Entries of panel A’s legend hold for each panel, except the one for undetected cases, displayed only in panels A, B and C. Projections for several months after the last data point illustrate the potential simulated scenarios explained in the main text.