Fig. 4.

Fold-changes (FC) of the estimates of each parameter, between a wave and the subsequent, for each country.A: 2nd wave versus 1st wave, Luxembourg. B: 3rd wave versus 2nd wave, Luxembourg. C: 2nd wave versus 1st wave, Austria. D: 2nd wave versus 1st wave, Sweden. The values for the parameters employed are displayed in Appendix Fig. J.3 for both manual and Bayesian fit, and summarized in Table H.6 for the manually calibrated parameter set. The vertical axes indicate ${\log }_2\left(\mathit{FC}\right)$, with $\mathit{FC}\doteq {\tau }_{2^{\mathrm{nd}}\mathrm{Wave}}/{\tau }_{1^{\mathrm{st}}\mathrm{Wave}}$ for each parameter, generically indicated as $\tau$. A value of 0 corresponds to no change, 1 to doubling from the previous wave to the next, $-1$ to halving from the previous wave to the next, and so on. The green small dots depict the fold changes for the manually calibrated parameter sets. Errors on the means were computed by the standard error of the mean, but are too small to be noticeable in the figure.