Fig. 5.

Simulations of different vaccination strategies: projections of number of fully vaccinated people,$R_{\mathit{eff}}\left(t\right)$, total detected cases and daily new cases for each country. Panels A, B and C show the number of fully vaccinated people as a function of time. Panels D, E and F show $R_{\mathit{eff}}\left(t\right)$. Panels G, H and I show the number of total detected cases. Panels J, K and L show the number of new daily detected cases. Luxembourg (A, D, G, J), Austria (B, E, H, K) and Sweden (C, F, I, L) are reported. Projections for several months after the last data point illustrate potential simulated scenarios, for three alternative vaccination strategies and for no vaccination, both in the case of the “pessimistic” scenario (red, corresponding to social interaction as high as in October) and the “no change” scenario (blue, corresponding to no change in the social interaction) from Fig. 2 and Fig. 3. For each social interaction scenario, we show the curves for no vaccination and for three alternative vaccination strategies (each corresponding to a different vaccines rollout speed), which correspond to vaccinating all the population of a country in, respectively, 6 months, 1 year or 1.5 years, starting from 1 January 2021. Scientific notation is used in panels A, B and C, such that 1e5 in panel A and 1e7 in panels B and C stand respectively for one hundred thousand and ten million people. Assumptions on vaccination are summarised and discussed in Sections 2.1 and 4.