Table 12.

Out-of-sample $\ell$-step forecast performance of the univariate HAR($4$) model on individual infection rate $I{R}_t^{\left(\tau \right)}$, $\tau =14,21$. (Values in parentheses indicate the errors divided by standard deviation.)

		$I{R}_t^{\left(14\right)}$					$I{R}_t^{\left(21\right)}$
		$\ell =1$	$\ell =7$	$\ell =14$	$\ell =21$		$\ell =1$	$\ell =7$	$\ell =14$	$\ell =21$
RMSE${}_{\ell }$		1.092	1.082	1.123	1.393		0.7733	0.9360	1.0026	0.9103
		(0.1842)	(0.1711)	(0.1499)	(0.1842)		(0.1762)	(0.2119)	(0.1719)	(0.1359)
MAE${}_{\ell }$		0.8923	0.9043	0.9611	0.9998		0.6507	0.7604	0.8440	0.6973
		(0.1433)	(0.1316)	(0.1283)	(0.1325)		(0.1389)	(0.1579)	(0.1379)	(0.1036)
MAPE${}_{\ell }$		13.601	15.342	16.135	16.395		14.313	20.441	24.325	19.240
RRSE${}_{\ell }$		0.685	0.9108	1.1141	1.408		0.5398	0.8646	1.2576	1.298