Table 5.

Coefficient estimates (standard errors) and 95% CI in univariate HAR($p$), $p=2,3,4$, for cumulative confirmed $C{C}_t$, cumulative recovered $C{R}_t$, cumulative death $C{D}_t$ cases.

	$p=2$		$p=3$		$p=4$
$C{C}_t$	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI
${\varphi }_1$	1.339(0.009)	[1.321,1.356]	1.454(0.018)	[1.418,1.489]	1.492(0.023)	[1.447,1.536]
${\varphi }_2$	−0.338(0.009)	[−0.356,−0.320]	−0.571(0.035)	[−0.648,−0.511]	−0.705(0.056)	[−0.816,−0.594]
${\varphi }_3$	–	–	0.127(0.018)	[0.092,0.162]	0.284(0.058)	[0.170,0.399]
${\varphi }_4$	–	–	–	–	−0.070(0.025)	[−0.119,−0.022]
$C{R}_t$	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI
${\varphi }_1$	1.316(0.011)	[1.294,1.339]	1.373(0.027)	[1.319,1.427]	1.306(0.038)	[1.231,1.381]
${\varphi }_2$	−0.316(0.012)	[−0.339,−0.293]	−0.432(0.052)	[−0.534,−0.329]	−0.217(0.099)	[−0.412,−0.022]
${\varphi }_3$	–	–	0.059(0.026)	[0.008,0.110]	−0.192(0.102)	[−0.392,0.009]
${\varphi }_4$	–	–	–	–	0.104(0.041)	[0.024,0.185]
$C{D}_t$	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI
${\varphi }_1$	1.299(0.016)	[1.268,1.331]	1.175(0.043)	[1.091,1.260]	1.138(0.047)	[1.045,1.231]
${\varphi }_2$	−0.298(0.016)	[−0.331,−0.267]	−0.052(0.081)	[−0.212,−0.108]	0.124(0.121)	[−0.115,0.362]
${\varphi }_3$	–	–	−0.123(0.040)	[−0.201,−0.045]	−0.378(0.136)	[−0.045,−0.111]
${\varphi }_4$	–	–	–	–	0.117(0.059)	[0.000,0.233]