Table 7.

Coefficient estimates (standard errors) and 95% CI in univariate HAR($p$) models of order $p=2,3,4$ for infection rate $I{R}_t^{\left(\tau \right)}$, $\tau =14,21$.

		$p=2$		$p=3$		$p=4$
$I{R}_t^{\left(14\right)}$		coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI
$\tau =14$	${\varphi }_1$	0.856(0.046)	[0.765,0.947]	0.869(0.047)	[0.776,0.961]	0.599(0.049)	[0.502,0.696]
	${\varphi }_2$	0.078(0.050)	[−0.021,0.177]	−0.041(0.092)	[−0.223,0.141]	0.241(0.077)	[0.089,0.393]
	${\varphi }_3$	–	–	0.121(0.080)	[−0.037,0.278]	−0.093(0.118)	[−0.325,0.139]
	${\varphi }_4$	–	–	–	–	0.162(0.089)	[−0.012,0.337]
$I{R}_t^{\left(21\right)}$		coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI	coef. est (se)	95% CI
$\tau =21$	${\varphi }_1$	0.910(0.044)	[0.824,0.996]	0.597(0.044)	[0.510,0.684]	0.612(0.061)	[0.492,0.733]
	${\varphi }_2$	0.022(0.048)	[−0.072,0.116]	0.277(0.069)	[0.142,0.413]	0.576(0.121)	[0.337,0.814]
	${\varphi }_3$	–	–	0.001(0.054)	[−0.105,0.107]	−0.498(0.119)	[−0.672,−0.225]
	${\varphi }_4$	–	–	–	–	0.204(0.070)	[0.066,0.343]