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. 2021 Aug 21;803:149834. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149834

Table 5.

A summary of different computation methods used for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting.

Studied location Forecasting Method Input Validation/Error method Results Reference
Brazil
  • Support vector regression (SVR)

  • Dataset of confirmed cases of COVID-19

  • Cross validation

  • Error for SVR

  • 1 day: 0.87-3.51%

  • 2 days: 1.02-5.63%

  • 3 days: 0.95-6.90%

(Ribeiro et al., 2020b)

Canada
  • Deep learning long short-term memory (LSTM)

  • Number of confirmed cases

  • Number of fatalities and recovered patient

  • Cross validation

  • Accuracy:

  • Short term: 93.45%

  • Long term: 92.67%

  • Outbreak end was estimated to be on June 2020

(Chimmula and Zhang, 2020)

China
  • Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system using enhanced flower pollination method

  • World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19

  • Holdout

  • High performance in predicting confirmed cases

  • R2=0.97

(Al-Qaness et al., 2020)

India
USA
UK
  • Long short-term memory (LSTM)

  • Memory optimized by Grey Wolf

  • Optimizer deep learning approach

  • Google trends

  • European Centre for Disease prevention and Control (ECDC) data

  • Akaike information criterion

  • Reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for forecasting results to the extent of about 98.00%

(Prasanth et al., 2021)

Italy
  • Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) Forecasting package

  • COVID-19 infected patient data from Italian ministry of health

  • Mean absolute prediction parameter

  • 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models

  • 84.40% of accuracy for recovered case models

(Chintalapudi et al., 2020)

Italy
Spain
France
China
Australia
USA
  • Variational autoencoder (VAE) deep learning

  • Daily confirmed and recovered cases collected from six countries

  • Holdout

  • Error per country

  • Italy: 5.90%

  • Spain: 2.19%

  • France: 1.88%

  • China: 0.13%

  • Australia: 0.24%

  • USA: 2.04%

(Zeroual et al., 2020)

Mexico
  • Decision tree algorithim

  • Epidemiology dataset by Secretariat of Health in Mexico

  • Cross validation

  • Accuracy: 94.99%

(Muhammad et al., 2021)

Ukraine
  • Polynomial regression

  • Daily incidence of coronavirus infection

  • Population size

  • Viral propagation speed

  • Holdout

  • Accuracy: 97.60%

(Chumachenko et al., 2020)

24 Countries and 24 States
  • Artificial neural network (ANN)

  • Dataset provided by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University

  • Handout

  • Average accuracy of 87.70%

(Wieczorek et al., 2020b)

12 countries
  • Support vector regression (SVR)

  • Dataset provided by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University

  • Cross validation

  • Ability to capture nonlinear patterns from the data

  • Gaussian Kernel provided best in-sample performance and also provided worst out-of-sample prediction

(Peng and Nagata, 2020)