Table 21:
Scenario 2: Expansion of Target Population
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated no. of people in Ontario | 12,746,315 | 12,952,196 | 13,143,292 | 13,318,835 | 13,479,594 |
| Treatment-Naive Subpopulation | |||||
| No. of people with new diagnosis of major depressiona | 191,195 | 194,283 | 197,149 | 199,783 | 202,194 |
| No. of people for whom first antidepressant therapy is indicateda | 63,094 | 64,113 | 65,059 | 65,928 | 66,724 |
| People Who Did Not Respond to at Least One Medication | |||||
| No. of people with major depressionb | 611,823 | 621,705 | 630,878 | 639,304 | 647,021 |
| No. of people who did not respond to at least one antidepressantb | 305,912 | 310,853 | 315,439 | 319,652 | 323,510 |
| Both groups, total | 369,006 | 374,966 | 380,498 | 385,580 | 390,234 |
a
Assuming annual incidence of major depression of 1.5% and that for 33% of this subgroup treatment with medication would be indicated.
b
Assuming prevalence of major depression would be 4.8% and that 50% of this subgroup would not respond to first medication.