Table 2.
Prediction performance and risk stratification thresholds of incident cases in ADVANCE
| Prediction of incident cases (n) | ADVANCE | High risk (30%) | High risk (10%) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP % |
AUC 95% CI |
AUC1 95% CI |
OR | PPV % |
NPV % |
OR | PPV % |
NPV % |
|
| Combined micro- or macrovascular (844) | 40 | 0.67 (0.65, 0.70) | 0.71 (0.68, 0.74) | 3.1 | 68 | 54 | 3.5 | 80 | 60 |
| Major microvascular (334) | 13 | 0.67 (0.64, 0.70) | 0.68 (0.64, 0.72) | 3.1 | 28 | 86 | 3.7 | 41 | 81 |
| Major macrovascular (559) | 21 | 0.68 (0.66, 0.70) | 0.73 (0.70, 0.76) | 3.1 | 44 | 74 | 3.5 | 55 | 66 |
| Stroke (154) | 4 | 0.66 (0.62, 0.71) | 0.74 (0.70, 0.79) | 3.1 | 12 | 94 | 2.9 | 16 | 96 |
| Myocardial infarction (192) | 7 | 0.67 (0.63, 0.70) | 0.69 (0.65, 0.74) | 2.2 | 16 | 92 | 2.1 | 19 | 94 |
| Heart failure (225) | 6 | 0.68 (0.65, 0.72) | 0.74 (0.68, 0.78) | 3.1 | 15 | 93 | 3.9 | 29 | 90 |
| Macroalbuminuria (150) | 4 | 0.65 (0.60, 0.69) | 0.67 (0.62, 0.72) | 2.3 | 19 | 91 | 2.1 | 27 | 97 |
| Low eGFR (1009) | 41 | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.69 (0.66, 0.72) | 4.0 | 59 | 55 | 5.1 | 74 | 46 |
| New/worsening nephropathy (198) | 5 | 0.64 (0.60, 0.68) | 0.66 (0.62, 0.70) | 2.5 | 27 | 94 | 2.5 | 21 | 95 |
| Cardiovascular death (283) | 7 | 0.72 (0.69, 0.75) | 0.78 (0.74, 0.81) | 4.4 | 20 | 91 | 4.7 | 35 | 87 |
| All-cause death (549) | 13 | 0.69 (0.67, 0.72) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.77) | 3.1 | 33 | 84 | 4.4 | 47 | 74 |
The multiPRS model is composed of the 10 wPRS, PC1, sex, age at diagnosis and diabetes duration. The number of cases as well as the period prevalence (PP) of each event during the 5 year follow-up of ADVANCE are indicated. AUC represents the discrimination between incident cases, defined as having an outcome during the 5 years of ADVANCE (free of outcome at baseline), and control participants who did not have a specific outcome at any time during the ADVANCE trial. AUC1 was calculated using a control group that includes normotensive participants only. PPV and NPV were adjusted for the prevalence of the specific outcome. OR: frequency of a specific outcome in high-risk group/frequency of the outcome in the remainder of the population
Outcomes are defined in the Methods section