Table 4. Median posterior and 95% Bayesian credibility interval parameter estimates for cattle, sheep, and goat models.
Parameter | Species model | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cattle | Sheep | Goat | |||||||
Median | 2.5% BCI | 97.5% BCI | Median | 2.5% BCI | 97.5% BCI | Median | 2.5% BCI | 97.5% BCI | |
Se: RBT | 0.779 | 0.570 | 0.894 | 0.893 | 0.636 | 0.989 | 0.807 | 0.575 | 0.966 |
Sp: RBT | 0.990 | 0.980 | 0.998 | 0.995 | 0.985 | 0.999 | 0.989 | 0.980 | 0.998 |
Se: cELISA | 0.623 | 0.443 | 0.790 | 0.409 | 0.241 | 0.644 | 0.561 | 0.376 | 0.713 |
Sp: cELISA | 0.996 | 0.988 | 1 | 0.988 | 0.981 | 0.993 | 0.984 | 0.974 | 0.995 |
Se: series | 0.490 | 0.263 | 0.641 | 0.361 | 0.180 | 0.573 | 0.454 | 0.239 | 0.614 |
Sp: series | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Se: parallel | 0.922 | 0.772 | 0.968 | 0.940 | 0.760 | 0.994 | 0.920 | 0.760 | 0.986 |
Sp: parallel | 0.986 | 0.970 | 0.997 | 0.983 | 0.969 | 0.991 | 0.973 | 0.955 | 0.992 |
Seroprevalence: pastoralist subpopulation | 0.063 | 0.045 | 0.090 | 0.033 | 0.018 | 0.049 | 0.051 | 0.034 | 0.076 |
Seroprevalence: non-pastoralist subpopulation | 0.009 | 0.001 | 0.021 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.022 |
covDn | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.009 | 0.001 | 0.016 |
covDp | -0.006 | -0.059 | 0.098 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 0.078 | -0.009 | -0.079 | 0.089 |
Cattle, sheep, and goat data are from the combined BacZoo study conducted 2013 to 2015 in Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions, and the SEEDZ study conducted in 2016 in Arusha and Manyara Regions of Tanzania. Se is sensitivity and Sp is specificity. RBT is Rose Bengal plate test. For sheep and goat models, RBT refers to the modified RBT 3:1 serum to antigen ratio. cELISA is the Animal and Plant Health Agency, UK, competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. covDn is covariance when animal is disease negative. covDp is covariance when animal is disease positive. BCI is Bayesian credibility interval.