Table 2.
RECC Global main input data and assumptions.
| LED | SSP1 | SSP2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2050 World population (million) | 8937 | 8246 | 8937 |
| Global North average passenger-km/yr 2016/2050 |
2016: 6360 2050: 5990 |
2016: 6470 2050: 8600 |
2016: 6570 2050: 10,800 |
| Global North average heated residential building m2/cap 2016/2050 |
2016: 27.3 2050 (No ME): 28.3 2050 (Full ME): 28.3 |
2016: 27.5 2050 (No ME): 40 2050 (Full ME): 31.5 |
2016: 27.7 2050 (No ME): 48.5 2050 (Full ME): 39 |
| Global North average cooled residential building m2/cap 2016/2050 |
2016: 28.8 2050 (No ME): 19.4 2050 (Full ME): 19.4 |
2016: 28.9 2050 (No ME): 30 2050 (Full ME): 24.5 |
2016: 29 2050 (No ME): 42 2050 (Full ME): 33.6 |
| Global South average passenger-km/yr 2016/2050 |
2016: 970 2050: 1610 |
2016: 1100 2050: 4050 |
2016: 1200 2050: 5900 |
| Global South average heated residential building m2/cap 2016/2050 |
2016: 11 2050 (No ME): 18 2050 (Full ME): 18 |
2016: 11 2050 (No ME): 22 2050 (Full ME): 18.6 |
2016: 11 2050 (No ME): 27.3 2050 (Full ME): 22.1 |
| Global South average cooled residential building m2/cap 2016/2050 |
2016: 12.3 2050 (No ME): 13.8 2050 (Full ME): 13.8 |
2016: 12.4 2050 (No ME): 22 2050 (Full ME): 18.7 |
2016: 12.4 2050 (No ME): 33 2050 (Full ME): 26.7 |
| Material efficiency: (I): Industrial material efficiency, (D): Demand-side material efficiency | |||
| Material efficiency buildings, full implementation by 2040 | |||
| End of life recovery (I) | 95% Recovery of steel and aluminium, 93% copper, 70% plastics | ||
| Fabrication yield loss (I) | Decrease to 10% | ||
| New scrap diversion (I) | Up to 80% of all fabrication scrap is used without re-melting | ||
| Reuse at end of life (I) | +29% Steel reuse, +27% concrete reuse | ||
| Lifetime extension (D) | Lifetime extended by 90% | ||
| Material substitution (I) | 85% Of new buildings | 50% Of new buildings | 10% Of new buildings |
| Less material by design (I) | 85% Of new buildings | 55% Of new buildings | 35% Of new buildings |
| More intense use (D) | None (baseline) | −20% Of m2/cap, ≥LED | −20% of m2/cap, ≥LED |
| Material efficiency vehicles, full implementation by 2040 | |||
| End of life recovery (I) | 95% Recovery of steel and aluminium, 82% copper, 70% plastics | ||
| Fabrication yield loss (I) | Decrease to 10% | ||
| New scrap diversion (I) | Up to 80% of all fabrication scrap is used without re-melting | ||
| Reuse at end of life (I) | 20–40% Reuse | 20–40% Reuse | 9–20% Reuse |
| Lifetime extension (D) | Lifetime of PHEV, BEV, FCV extended by 20% | ||
| Material substitution (I) | For 60% of new vehicles | For 60% of new vehicles | 28–35% Of new vehicles |
| Downsizing (D) | Share of microcars and passenger cars 80–96% | Share of microcars and passenger cars 70–95% | Share of microcars and passenger cars 65–94% |
| Car-sharing (D) | 30% Service demand through car sharing | 25% Service demand through car sharing | 15% Service demand through car sharing |
| Ride-sharing (D) | 40% Increase in occupancy rate | ||
| Climate policy parameters | |||
| GHG intensity of electricity generation, global average | 241 g CO2-eq/kWh (no new policy), 87 g CO2-eq/kWh (2 °C climate policy) | ||
| Global average share of electricity and H2, vehicles, 2016/2050 | 2016: 0%, 2050: 6–7% (no new policy), 39–40% (2 °C climate policy) | ||
| Global average share of electricity and H2, residential buildings, 2016/2050 | 2016: 33%, 2050: 64–66% (no new policy), 67–70% (2 °C climate policy) | ||