Table 2.

COVID scenario assumptions

	Year	Baseline	Downside	Upside
GDP Growth*	2020	-4.40%	-5.15%	-4.40%
	2021	5.20%	2.34%	5.65%
Excess Mortality**	2020	23.0%	38.0%	7.0%
	2021	11.5%	19.0%	3.5%

^* Values from IMF (2020)

^** Values for 2020 from Kontis et al. (2020), 2021 assumed to be half of 2020