Table.
PAF and burden estimates for high temperature, low temperature, and non-optimal temperature exposure by country in 1990 and 2019
|
1990 |
2019 |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attributable deaths (95% UI) | PAFs (%) | Attributable rate, per 100 000 | Attributable deaths | PAFs (%) | Attributable rate, per 100 000 | |
| High temperature | ||||||
| Brazil | 2340 (1707 to 3023) | 0·24 (0·17 to 0·31) | 1·57 (1·15 to 2·03) | 5881 (4658 to 7305) | 0·42 (0·33 to 0·51) | 2·71 (2·15 to 3·37) |
| Chile | 1 (0 to 7) | 0 (0 to 0·01) | 0·009 (0 to 0·052) | 5 (2 to 16) | 0 (0 to 0·01) | 0·03 (0·009 to 0·086) |
| China | 31 696 (24 483 to 40 627) | 0·38 (0·30 to 0·47) | 2·68 (2·07 to 3·43) | 46 224 (33 932 to 60 317) | 0·43 (0·33 to 0·55) | 3·25 (2·39 to 4·24) |
| Colombia | 393 (271 to 557) | 0·23 (0·16 to 0·33) | 1·21 (0·83 to 1·71) | 976 (688 to 1304) | 0·40 (0·31 to 0·49) | 2·04 (1·44 to 2·73) |
| Guatemala | 42 (20 to 80) | 0·06 (0·03 to 0·11) | 0·53 (0·25 to 1·01) | 234 (166 to 307) | 0·25 (0·19 to 0·30) | 1·32 (0·94 to 1·73) |
| Mexico | 943 (715 to 1175) | 0·21 (0·16 to 0·27) | 1·10 (0·84 to 1·37) | 2655 (1844 to 3533) | 0·36 (0·26 to 0·46) | 2·13 (1·48 to 2·83) |
| New Zealand | 2 (0 to 5) | 0·01 (0 to 0·02) | 0·046 (−0·003 to 0·16) | 2 (0 to 7) | 0·01 (0 to 0·02) | 0·047 (0·005 to 0·15) |
| South Africa | 167 (86 to 264) | 0·06 (0·03 to 0·09) | 0·45 (0·23 to 0·72) | 453 (275 to 671) | 0·09 (0·05 to 0·13) | 0·81 (0·50 to 1·21) |
| USA | 6128 (4074 to 8621) | 0·29 (0·19 to 0·40) | 2·42 (1·61 to 3·40) | 9854 (7333 to 13 046) | 0·33 (0·25 to 0·44) | 3·00 (2·24 to 3·98) |
| Low temperature | ||||||
| Brazil | 9117 (8027 to 10 326) | 0·93 (0·81 to 1·05) | 6·13 (5·39 to 6·94) | 11 420 (9795 to 13 202) | 0·81 (0·70 to 0·93) | 5·27 (4·52 to 6·09) |
| Chile | 2883 (2517 to 3268) | 3·80 (3·33 to 4·30) | 21·71 (18·96 to 24·61) | 3754 (3235 to 4264) | 3·32 (2·87 to 3·77) | 20·63 (17·78 to 23·43) |
| China | 344 273 (300 340 to 384 708) | 4·12 (3·70 to 4·49) | 29·08 (25·37 to 32·50) | 455 735 (386 354 to 523 890) | 4·28 (3·88 to 4·66) | 32·04 (27·16 to 36·83) |
| Colombia | 2047 (1669 to 2466) | 1·21 (0·98 to 1·45) | 6·29 (5·13 to 7·58) | 3850 (2855 to 4963) | 1·56 (1·27 to 1·88) | 8·06 (5·98 to 10·39) |
| Guatemala | 898 (729 to 1129) | 1·23 (1·03 to 1·52) | 11·27 (9·15 to 14·17) | 1024 (770 to 1362) | 1·08 (0·92 to 1·31) | 5·76 (4·33 to 7·66) |
| Mexico | 7977 (7178 to 8843) | 1·81 (1·63 to 2·00) | 9·33 (8·40 to 10·34) | 16 447 (13 873 to 19 237) | 2·23 (1·99 to 2·47) | 13·16 (11·10 to 15·40) |
| New Zealand | 1070 (927 to 1217) | 4·08 (3·53 to 4·64) | 31·32 (27·13 to 35·62) | 1189 (994 to 1359) | 3·45 (2·90 to 3·95) | 26·45 (22·12 to 30·22) |
| South Africa | 5426 (4 612 to 6284) | 1·85 (1·58 to 2·11) | 14·73 (12·52 to 17·06) | 8372 (7390 to 9399) | 1·61 (1·42 to 1·80) | 15·06 (13·29 to 16·91) |
| USA | 77 365 (69 254 to 84 114) | 3·63 (3·25 to 3·95) | 30·51 (27·31 to 33·17) | 101 292 (89 621 to 110 435) | 3·44 (3·03 to 3·75) | 30·88 (27·33 to 33·67) |
| Non-optimal temperature | ||||||
| Brazil | 11 474 (10 312 to 12 693) | 1·17 (1·05 to 1·28) | 7·71 (6·93 to 8·53) | 17 286 (15 386 to 19 185) | 1·23 (1·10 to 1·35) | 7·98 (7·10 to 8·85) |
| Chile | 2885 (2519 to 3270) | 3·80 (3·33 to 4·30) | 21·72 (18·97 to 24·62) | 3759 (3244 to 4267) | 3·32 (2·88 to 3·77) | 20·66 (17·83 to 23·45) |
| China | 375 343 (327 344 to 417 900) | 4·50 (4·06 to 4·85) | 31·71 (27·65 to 35·31) | 499 605 (425 094 to 573 429) | 4·69 (4·30 to 5·06) | 35·13 (29·89 to 40·32) |
| Colombia | 2462 (2050 to 2907) | 1·45 (1·21 to 1·72) | 7·56 (6·30 to 8·93) | 4820 (3669 to 6148) | 1·96 (1·65 to 2·27) | 10·01 (7·68 to 12·87) |
| Guatemala | 942 (765 to 1179) | 1·29 (1·08 to 1·59) | 11·82 (9·60 to 14·79) | 1258 (976 to 1637) | 1·33 (1·15 to 1·58) | 7·08 (5·49 to 9·21) |
| Mexico | 8924 (8104 to 9810) | 2·03 (1·85 to 2·23) | 10·44 (9·48 to 11·48) | 19 055 (16 111 to 22 083) | 2·58 (2·32 to 2·83) | 15·25 (12·89 to 17·68) |
| New Zealand | 1072 (930 to 1218) | 4·08 (3·54 to 4·64) | 31·37 (27·21 to 35·64) | 1191 (996 to 1361) | 3·45 (2·91 to 3·95) | 26·49 (22·16 to 30·27) |
| South Africa | 5595 (4795 to 6405) | 1·90 (1·64 to 2·17) | 15·19 (13·02 to 17·39) | 8815 (7846 to 9823) | 1·69 (1·50 to 1·89) | 15·86 (14·11 to 17·67) |
| USA | 83 196 (75 143 to 89 943) | 3·90 (3·52 to 4·22) | 32·81 (29·63 to 35·47) | 110 588 (98 410 to 119 580) | 3·75 (3·35 to 4·06) | 33·72 (30·00 to 36·46) |
PAF=Population attributable fraction. UI=uncertainty interval.