Skip to main content
. 2021 Aug 27;19:211. doi: 10.1186/s12916-021-02060-y

Table 1.

Parameter values for the agent-based model

Symbol Description Distribution/valuea Source
Incubation period s(τ) Time between infection and symptom onset

Gamma distribution

Shape = 5.807

Scale = 0.948

Mean = 5.510

SD = 2.284

Lauer et al. [15]
Generation time ω(τ) Time between becoming infected and subsequent onward transmission events

Weibull distribution

Shape = 2.826

Scale = 6.839

Mean = 6

Grassly et al. [14]
Proportion of asymptomatic infections among infected patients PAp 20% Buitraga-Garcia et al. [20]
Proportion of asymptomatic infections among infected HCWs PAh 31% Buitraga-Garcia et al. [20]
Proportion of severe symptomatic individuals Ps Proportion of exposed individuals that will develop severe symptoms 20% Wu et al. [21]
Reproduction number of asymptomatic infectees for wild-type variant RAW Mean number of infections caused by an individual asymptomatically infected with the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant 0.5 Calibrated to UMCU data
Reproduction number of symptomatic infectees for wild-type variant RSW Mean number of infections caused by an individual symptomatically infected with the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant 1.25 Calibrated to UMCU data
Reproduction number of asymptomatic infectees for new virus variant RA Mean number of infections caused by an individual asymptomatically infected with the SARS-CoV-2 variant 0.8 (1.95) Based on RAW with 56% higher transmissibility, varied in sensitivity analysis
Reproduction number of symptomatic infectees for new virus variant RS Mean number of infections caused by an individual symptomatically infected with the SARS-CoV-2 variant 1.95 Based on RAW with 56% higher transmissibility
Maximum sensitivity of diagnostic PCR test 93.1% (79%) Grassly et al. [14], varied in sensitivity analysis
Proportion of HCWs that work in the same ward as during their previous shift

95% (baseline)

100% (intervention)

Assumed
PPE effectiveness Reduction in infectiousness upon contact between an infected and susceptible individual (includes PPE efficacy and adherence) 90% (50%, 70%) Suzuki et al. [22], Qian et al. [23] and Bessesen et al. [24], varied in sensitivity analysis
Isolation period for HCWs Amount of time HCWs have to isolate after symptom onset or after being detected by screening or contact tracing 7 days Assumed
Recovery time for asymptomatic infection γA Mean duration of an asymptomatic infection

14 days

Sensitivity analysis: Unif(9, 19)

Assumed
Recovery time for symptomatic (moderate, severe) infection γS Mean duration of a symptomatic infection

14 days (moderate)

35 days (severe)

Sensitivity analysis:

Unif(9, 19)

Unif(30, 40)

Liu et al. [16]
LoS of non-COVID patients in ICU

Lognormal

meanlog = 0.37

sdlog = 0.82

Mean = 1.45 days

sd = 2.27

Fitted distributions to UMCU data from 2014-2017
LoS of non-COVID patients in normal ward

Weibull

Shape = 0.92

Scale = 4.18

Mean = 4.35 days

Fitted distributions to UMCU data from 2014-2017
LoS of moderately infected patients

Gamma

Shape = 1.88

Rate = 0.25

Mean = 31.8 days

sd = 30.08

Fitted distributions to UMCU data from 2020
LoS of severely infected patients

Gamma

Shape = 1.59

Rate = 0.05

Mean = 7.52 days

sd = 636

Fitted distributions to UMCU data from 2020

aValues given are fixed in the simulations. Values in brackets were used in sensitivity analyses