Table 1.
The incidence of acute pancreatitis in 1990/2019 and temporal trends
| Location | Incident cases (95% UI) | Age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000) | EAPC of incidence rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990–2019 (%) | |
| Global | 1,727,789.3 (1,452,132.4–2,059,695.3) | 2,814,972.3 (2,414,361.3–3,293,591.8) | 37.9 (32–44.6) | 34.8 (29.8–40.7) | – 8.4 (– 10.4 to – 5.9) |
| Sex | |||||
| Male | 929,028.7 (774,587.6–1,115,575.6) | 1,541,017.1 (1,307,264.4–1,814,454.3) | 41.0 (34.3–48.5) | 38.8 (33.1–45.5) | – 5.4 (– 7.5 to – 2.8) |
| Female | 798,760.6 (677,669.1–943,983.6) | 1,273,955.2 (1,098,304.6–1,478,594.1) | 34.5 (29.2–40.3) | 30.6 (26.4–35.6) | – 11.2 (– 13.2 to – 8.8) |
| SDI factor | |||||
| High SDI | 390,419.1 (335,676.7–452,156.8) | 533,633.2 (477,729.8–597,075.3) | 41.3 (35.4–48.0) | 38.1 (33.9–42.7) | – 7.9 (– 11.8 to – 3.1) |
| High-middle SDI | 482,857.1 (406,521.4–568,658.8) | 667,222.6 (569,618.5–769,408.6) | 43.2 (36.6–50.6) | 36.7 (31.5–42.6) | – 15.0 (– 16.6 to – 13.1) |
| Middle SDI | 455,054.8 (373,090.6–554,469.3) | 735,082.3 (616,164.7–867,454.5) | 33.7 (27.8–40.1) | 28.8 (24.4–34.2) | – 14.3 (– 16.7 to – 11.4) |
| Low-middle SDI | 297,240.1 (244,736.5–361,676.3) | 598,531.4 (497,030.5–720,521.9) | 34.9 (29.0–41.8) | 36.5 (30.7–43.7) | 4.6 (3.0–6.4) |
| Low SDI | 101,572 (83,136.7–123,390.1) | 224,224.5 (183,906.9–270,951.5) | 28.4 (23.8–33.7) | 27.7 (23.4–32.9) | – 2.4 (– 3.5 to – 1.3) |
| Region | |||||
| Andean Latin America | 12,751.6 (10,888.9–14,964.7) | 26,446.1 (23,242.3–30,101.7) | 45.8 (39.6–52.9) | 43.5 (38.4–49.3) | – 5.0 (– 7.3 to – 2.6) |
| Australasia | 8618.4(7250.0–10,167.5) | 14,394.8 (12,298.7–16,770.4) | 38.6 (32.5–45.3) | 37.6 (31.7–44) | – 2.8 (– 5.2 to – 0.3) |
| Caribbean | 8807.7 (7294.7–10,668.9) | 14,155.4 (11,772.9–16,692.7) | 28.8 (23.9–34.3) | 28.4 (23.5–33.6) | – 1.7 (– 2.9 to – 0.4) |
| Central Asia | 18,365.6 (15,467.5–21,700.0) | 29,035.3 (24,076.9–34,326.1) | 33.7 (28.4–39.4) | 32.9 (27.7–38.5) | – 2.4 (– 3.4 to – 1.1) |
| Central Europe | 67,402.6 (57,280.6–78,292.3) | 73,015.8 (64,542.3–82,156.6) | 49.4 (42–57.3) | 45.2 (40.1–50.9) | – 8.6 (– 12.5 to – 3.2) |
| Central Latin America | 46,647.8 (39,437.0–55,591.9) | 96,777.3 (83,302.4–112,767.0) | 37.6 (32.1–44) | 38.6 (33.3–44.7) | 2.6 (1.0–4.4) |
| Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 7427.2 (6052.5–9165.5) | 18,256.3 (14,929.3–22,374.1) | 21.1 (17.6–25) | 20.8 (17.5–24.7) | – 1.0 (– 2.9 to – 0.9) |
| East Asia | 396,687.7 (322,719.1–482,300.5) | 526,066.5 (444,786.6–615,193.3) | 38 (31.1–45.4) | 27.6 (23.5–32.2) | – 27.4 (– 30.4 to – 23.8) |
| Eastern Europe | 182,577.6 (155,056.7–211,692.2) | 221,945.2 (188,142.5–258,013.8) | 71.2 (60.8–82.9) | 79.6 (68.2–92.5) | 11.7 (10.8–12.7) |
| Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 25,232.9 (20,531.3–31,140.5) | 57,965.7 (46,838.7–71,275.5) | 21.1 (17.7–25.2) | 21.1 (17.7–25.2) | 0.1 (– 0.6 to – 0.7) |
| High-income Asia Pacific | 62,652.3 (52,382.8–74,360.9) | 78,997.7 (68,905.1–90,260.6) | 32.9 (27.6–39.1) | 31.5 (27.3–36.5) | – 4.3 (– 9.0 to – 1.3) |
| High-income North America | 200,836.4 (173,238.5–232,436.8) | 257,777.8 (236,252.7–284,187.5) | 62.4 (53.7–72.0) | 52.0 (47.5–56.9) | – 16.6 (– 22.3 to – 9.9) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 61,824.3 (50,782.1–75,020.1) | 140,637.9 (117,038.5–168,090.2) | 26.7 (22.3–31.5) | 26.6 (22.5–31.2) | – 0.2 (– 1.7 to – 1.6) |
| Oceania | 1078.6 (884.9–1322.0) | 2385.6 (1934.6–2925.5) | 24.9 (20.7–29.6) | 24.1 (20–28.7) | – 3.0 (– 5.0 to – 0.8) |
| South Asia | 328,618.8 (267,223.4–401,086.7) | 743,524.0 (611,176.0–901,906.4) | 38.1 (31.6–45.9) | 43.0 (35.9–51.7) | 12.8 (10.9–14.9) |
| Southeast Asia | 93,540.7 (76,473.3–113,689.3) | 174,246.5 (143,846.9–208,675.3) | 26.0 (21.6–30.9) | 25.3 (21.2–30.1) | – 2.6 (– 3.9 to – 1.5) |
| Southern Latin America | 15,849.3 (13,664.8–18,265.2) | 24,167.2 (20,962.5–27,835.3) | 33.6 (28.9–38.6) | 31.6 (27.4–36.6) | – 5.8 (– 7.9 to – 3.9) |
| Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 8604.9 (7042.0–10,531.2) | 15,207.3 (12,560.8–18,528.5) | 22.1 (18.5–26.4) | 21.7 (18.1–25.9) | – 5.8 (– 7.9 to – 3.9) |
| Tropical Latin America | 23,704.1 (20,682.2–27,345.5) | 47,509.1 (41,862.2–53,770.0) | 20.1 (17.7–22.7) | 19.4 (17.1–21.9) | – 3.4 (– 4.7 to – 2.0) |
| Western Europe | 123,270.9 (107,562.6–140,276.4) | 170,344.2 (149,047.3–194,756.8) | 25.4 (22.1–29.2) | 26.3 (22.8–30.1) | 3.5 (1.5–5.3) |
| Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 33,289.8 (27,664.2–40,190.6) | 82,116.6 (68,165.6–98,901.6) | 26.0 (22.0–30.6) | 26.7 (22.7–31.4) | 3.0 (2.5–3.5) |
EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; UI, uncertainty interval