Table 5.
Average Marginal effects after ordered probit regression factors affecting the prevalence of household-level food insecurity.
| Variables | Three countries combined (Aggregate) |
Ethiopia |
Kenya |
Tanzania |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food-secure | Mild | Moderate | Severe | Food-secure | Mild | Moderate | Severe | Food-secure | Mild | Moderate | Severe | Food-secure | Mild | Moderate | Severe | |
| Exposure | ||||||||||||||||
| Latest dry spell | −0.005*** (0.010) | 0.002** (0.002) | 0.003*** (0.005) | 0.007*** (0.011) | −0.048 *** (0.035) | 0.006** (0.004) | 0.051 ** (0.021) | 0.022*** (0.012) | −0.011*** (0.032) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.007*** (0.021) | 0.003*** (0.010) | 0.019*** (0.010) | 0.001* (0.002) | 0.005** (0.006) | 0.002*** (0.002) |
| Longer dry spell | −0.012*** (0.058) | 0.001*** (0.001) | 0.003*** (0.005) | 0.003*** (0.002) | −0.007*** (0.015) | 0.001*** (0.001) | 0.004*** (0.009) | 0.002*** (0.005) | −0.043*** (0.011) | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.027*** (0.007) | 0.013*** (0.004) | −0.049*** (0.013) | 0.008 *** (0.003) | 0.029*** (0.008) | 0.012 *** (0.003) |
| Sensitivity | ||||||||||||||||
| Crop loss | −0.011*** (0.015) | 0.004** (0.002) | 0.006*** (0.009) | 0.003**** (0.004) | −0.140*** (0.045) | 0.013*** (0.005) | 0.082*** (0.027) | 0.045** (0.016) | −0.042*** (0.029) | 0.002* (0.002) | 0.027** (0.018) | 0.013*** (0.009) | −0.067*** (0.028) | 0.011** (0.005) | 0.040 ** (0.017) | 0.016** (0.007) |
| Adaptive Capacity | ||||||||||||||||
| Human Capital | ||||||||||||||||
| Gender (Male head)1 | 0.010 (0.026) | −0.001 (0.003) | −0.006 (0.016) | −0.003 (0.007) | 0.149** (0.062) | −0.014** (0.007) | −0.087** (0.036) | −0.048** (0.021) | 0.001 (0.035) | −0.000 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.022) | −0.000 (0.011) | 0.105** (0.050) | −0.017** (0.009) | −0.063** (0.030) | −0.025** (0.012) |
| Age | −0.005*** (0.001) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.003*** (0.001) | 0.001*** (0.000) | −0.000 (0.003) | 0.000 (0.000) | 0.000 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.001) | −0.005*** (0.001) | 0.000** (0.000) | 0.003*** (0.001) | 0.002*** (0.000) | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.000) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.000) |
| Family size | −0.027*** (0.004) | 0.003*** (0.001) | 0.016*** (0.002) | 0.007*** (0.001) | −0.009*** (0.008) | 0.001*** (0.001) | 0.005*** (0.004) | 0.003*** (0.002) | −0.033*** (0.006) | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.021*** (0.004) | 0.010*** (0.002) | −0.029*** (0.007) | 0.005*** (0.001) | 0.018*** (0.004) | 0.007*** (0.002) |
| Education level | 0.016*** (0.003) | −0.002*** (0.000) | −0.010*** (0.002) | −0.004*** (0.001) | 0.011** (0.005) | −0.001** (0.001) | −0.007 ** (0.003) | −0.004** (0.002) | 0.015*** (0.003) | −0.001** (0.000) | −0.010*** (0.002) | −0.005*** (0.001) | 0.003 (0.006) | −0.000 (0.001) | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.001 (0.001) |
| Reciprocal labor | 0.031*** (0.008) | −0.004*** (0.001) | −0.019*** (0.005) | −0.008*** (0.002) | 0.037*** (0.035) | −0.003** (0.003) | −0.021*** (0.020) | −0.012*** (0.011) | 0.044*** (0.011) | −0.002** (0.001) | −0.028*** (0.007) | −0.014*** (0.004) | 0.108*** (0.034) | −0.018** (0.006) | −0.064*** (0.020) | −0.025** (0.009) |
| Financial Capital | ||||||||||||||||
| Saving1 | 0.215*** (0.021) | −0.025*** (0.003) | −0.133*** (0.014) | −0.058*** (0.008) | 0.261*** (0.034) | −0.025** (0.005) | −0.152*** (0.022) | −0.084*** (0.017) | 0.183*** (0.047) | −0.010** (0.004) | −0.116*** (0.030) | −0.058*** (0.017) | 0.147*** (0.034) | −0.024*** (0.007) | −0.088*** (0.021) | −0.035*** (0.010) |
| Borrowings1 | 0.041* (0.022) | −0.005* (0.003) | −0.025* (0.014) | −0.011* (0.006) | 0.050 (0.039) | −0.005 (0.004) | −0.029 (0.023) | −0.016 (0.013) | 0.010 (0.034) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.006 (0.022) | −0.003 (0.011) | 0.054 (0.036) | −0.009 (0.006) | −0.032 (0.022) | −0.013 (0.009) |
| Social Capital | ||||||||||||||||
| Visiting village demonstration | −0.003 (0.023) | 0.000 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.014) | 0.001 (0.006) | 0.075** (0.041) | −0.007* (0.004) | −0.044** (0.024) | −0.024** (0.014) | 0.019 (0.045) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.012 (0.028) | −0.006 (0.014) | 0.048 (0.040) | −0.008 (0.007) | −0.029 (0.024) | −0.011 (0.010) |
| Visiting outside village | 0.011 (0.030) | −0.001 (0.003) | −0.007 (0.019) | −0.003 (0.008) | 0.002 (0.043) | −0.000 (0.004) | −0.001 (0.025) | −0.001 (0.014) | −0.061 (0.052) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.038 (0.033) | 0.019 (0.017) | 0.078 (0.055) | −0.013 (0.009) | −0.047 (0.033) | −0.018 (0.013) |
| Extension contact | −0.005 (0.005) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.004 (0.007) | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.028 (0.022) | −0.001 (0.001) | −0.018 (0.014) | −0.009 (0.007) | −0.006 (0.007) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.002) |
| Information on rainfall1 | 0.037*** (0.021) | −0.004* (0.002) | −0.023** (0.013) | −0.010*** (0.006) | 0.112** (0.037) | −0.011** (0.004) | −0.066** (0.022) | −0.036** (0.013) | 0.052*** (0.037) | −0.003* (0.002) | −0.033** (0.024) | −0.016** (0.012) | 0.081** (0.033) | −0.013** (0.006) | −0.048 ** (0.020) | −0.019 ** (0.008) |
| Membership in group1 | 0.019*** (0.022) | −0.002** (0.003) | −0.012*** (0.014) | −0.005*** (0.006) | 0.068*** (0.035) | −0.006* (0.004) | −0.040*** (0.021) | −0.022*** (0.012) | 0.063*** (0.035) | −0.003** (0.002) | −0.040*** (0.022) | −0.020*** (0.011) | 0.119*** (0.044) | −0.020* (0.008) | −0.071*** (0.027) | −0.028*** (0.011) |
| Physical Capital | ||||||||||||||||
| Distance to nearest Market | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.000) | 0.002 (0.003) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.001) | 0.008 (0.006) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.001 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.000) |
| Distance to agriculture office | 0.003 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.002 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.005 (0.005) | −0.000 (0.001) | −0.003 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.009** (0.003) | −0.000** (0.000) | −0.005** (0.002) | −0.003** (0.001) | 0.000 (0.003) | −0.000 (0.001) | −0.000 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.001) |
| Owned radio/TV1 | 0.146*** (0.023) | −0.017*** (0.003) | −0.090 *** (0.014) | −0.039 *** (0.007) | 0.156*** (0.037) | −0.015** (0.005) | −0.091*** (0.022) | −0.050*** (0.014) | 0.040** (0.048) | −0.002* (0.003) | −0.025** (0.030) | −0.012** (0.015) | 0.133*** (0.037) | −0.022*** (0.007) | −0.079*** (0.022) | −0.031*** (0.010) |
| Natural Capital | ||||||||||||||||
| Land size (ha) | 0.003 (0.003) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.024 (0.016) | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.014 (0.009) | −0.008 (0.005) | 0.001 (0.005) | −0.000 (0.000) | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.000 (0.001) | 0.006 (0.005) | −0.001 (0.001) | −0.004 (0.003) | −0.001 (0.001) |
| Livestock (TLU) | 0.016 *** (0.003) | −0.002*** (0.000) | −0.010*** (0.002) | −0.004*** (0.001) | 0.030*** (0.007) | −0.003** (0.001) | −0.017*** (0.004) | −0.010*** (0.003) | 0.046*** (0.011) | −0.002** (0.001) | −0.029*** (0.007) | −0.014*** (0.004) | 0.008** (0.004) | −0.001** (0.001) | −0.005** (0.002) | −0.002** (0.001) |
| Log likelihood = -2056.4108 | −459.13841 | −701.43858 | −781.42762 | |||||||||||||
| LR Chi2 (21) | 322.09 | 178.02 | 174.24 | 148.55 | ||||||||||||
| Prob > Chi2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | ||||||||||||
| Pseudo R2 | 0.0726 | 0.1624 | 0.1105 | 0.0868 | ||||||||||||
| N | 1912 | 516 | 676 | 720 | ||||||||||||
*** at 1% level of significance, ** at 5% level of significance, and * at 10% level of significance, 1indicates dummy variables.