Table 1:
Cofactor | Description | Prior distribution used in model |
Source (see appendix) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative scenarioa | Liberal scenarioa | Fully liberal scenarioa | |||
1 | Per-act increased risk of HIV acquisition for HSV-2-infected individuals a) For recent HSV-2 infection b) For established HSV-2 infection |
All females: T (7.2, 1, 12)b All males: T (4.7, 1, 11) Lower-risk females: T (2.5, 1, 4) Lower-risk males: T (3.1, 1, 5) FSWsc: T (1.5, 1, 3) CFSWsd: T (1.8, 1, 3) |
Adapted from 3, See Table S4 and section 2.2 of appendix | ||
2 | Per-act increased risk of HIV transmission for HSV-2-infected individuals () | 1 | T (1.33,1,1.93) | See Table C1 and section C1.3 | |
3 | Per-act increased risk of HSV-2 transmission for HIV-infected individuals () | 1 | 1 | T (2.55,1.39,4.68) | See Table C1 and section C1.4 |
4 | Efficacy of ART in reducing the per-act increase in HSV-2 transmission risk due to HIV per sex act () | 1 | 1 | T (0.58,0.37,0.92) | See Table C1 and section C1.5 |
5 | Effect of HSV-2 on the efficacy of ART in reducing per-act HIV transmission risk () | 1 | 1 | U (0.95-1.00)e | See Table C1 and section C1.6 |
Description of per-act HIV/HSV-2 cofactor prior distributions used in the model under the different model scenarios.
Conservative scenario: HSV-2 only increases HIV acquisition risk; liberal scenario: HSV-2 increases HIV acquisition and transmission risk; fully liberal scenario: HSV-2 increases HIV acquisition and transmission risk, HIV increases HSV-2 transmission risk but this is reduced if the individual is on ART, and HSV-2 can slightly alter the effect of ART on HIV transmission risk.
T(m,a,b) – triangular distribution (m=mode, a=minimum, b=maximum).
CFSWs – clients of FSWs
FSW – female sex workers.
U(a,b) – uniform distribution (a=minimum, b=maximum).