Table 2:
Model estimates of the fraction (i.e. tPAF) (a,c), and number (b,d) of incident heterosexual HIV infections occurring among non-PWID populations (in thousands) attributable to HSV-2 over 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 by WHO region under the conservative (a-b) and liberal (c-d) scenarios, median (95% uncertainty interval).
| Global | Africa | Americas | South-East Asia | Europe | Western Pacific | Eastern Mediterranean | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a) tPAF: Fraction of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 - Conservative scenario | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| 2009-2018 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 37.3% (33.4-43.2) |
42.6% (38.0-51.2) |
27.9% (23.6-33.6) |
24.0% (18.6-29.7) |
11.2% (7.9-13.8) |
27.3% (20.0-32.1) |
23.7% (17.8-27.9) |
| Females | 38.1% (33.0-44.1) |
43.2% (37.2-51.2) |
26.9% (22.8-34.3) |
22.7% (15.9-28.9) |
11.2% (7.2-14.4) |
27.5% (18.0-32.7) |
26.1% (19.1-31.2) |
| Males | 35.2% (29.8-43.5) |
41.9% (33.8-51.8) |
29.2% (22.4-35.3) |
25.9% (18.6-31.6) |
11.2% (7.8-13.8) |
27.2% (20.2-32.9) |
20.8% (14.2-26.4) |
|
| |||||||
| 2019-2028 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 33.8% (28.6-42.6) |
38.5% (32.4-47.6) |
25.1% (20.9-30.8) |
22.3% (16.7-29.4) |
9.8% (6.5-12.1) |
25.9% (18.5-30.8) |
23.0% (17.4-27.7) |
| Females | 34.9% (28.6-44.0) |
39.6% (32.0-49.1) |
24.0% (19.7-31.3) |
21.3% (14.0-28.6) |
9.5% (6.0-12.6) |
26.1% (16.1-30.8) |
25.5% (18.4-30.5) |
| Males | 31.7% (25.5-41.5) |
37.1% (28.7-48.2) |
26.5% (20.7-32.5) |
23.8% (15.7-30.7) |
10.0% (6.7-12.3) |
25.0% (18.2-31.8) |
19.6% (13.5-25.6) |
|
| |||||||
| b) Number of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 - Conservative scenario | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| 2009-2018 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 5595 (4497-6953) |
4843 (3577-6563) |
265 (203-324) |
325 (261-405) |
110 (73-146) |
180 (129-236) |
27 (18-36) |
| Females | 3477 (2768-4610) |
3194 (2328-4252) |
141 (115-182) |
177 (118-229) |
56 (34-73) |
103 (63-129) |
17 (11-23) |
| Males | 1983 (1547-2723) |
1675 (1108-2332) |
120 (86-160) |
150 (99-208) |
54 (38-77) |
78 (54-121) |
9 (6-15) |
|
| |||||||
| 2019-2028 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 2191 (1513-3646) |
1898 (1206-2984) |
107 (81-140) |
101 (70-144) |
45 (28-63) |
65 (42-92) |
18 (12-26) |
| Females | 1399 (980-2366) |
1234 (798-1972) |
57 (45-78) |
54 (30-82) |
23 (12-33) |
36 21-53) | 12 (7-18) |
| Males | 741 (474-1333) |
648 (365-1123) |
48 (33-69) |
44 (27-71) |
21 (14-32) |
27 (18-44) |
6 (4-11) |
|
| |||||||
| c) tPAF: Fraction of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 - Liberal scenario | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| 2009-2018 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 51.0% (42.7-58.2) |
56.5% (46.7-65.2) |
43.2% (31.8-53.3) |
36.5% (25.0-47.2) |
26.8% (16.2-35.8) |
39.2% (28.0-49.1) |
37.3% (29.6-45.0) |
| Females | 51.0% (42.6-59.0) |
56.1% (45.8-65.2) |
41.0% (29.9-51.6) |
34.5% (23.4-45.1) |
24.2% (15.7-31.5) |
37.0% (27.9-46.9) |
36.6% (29.1-44.3) |
| Males | 51.6% (42.4-58.2) |
56.6% (45.3-66.4) |
46.3% (34.5-56.3) |
39.1% (25.9-49.9) |
29.3% (17.0-39.8) |
40.9% (27.8-52.6) |
38.2% (27.9-47.3) |
|
| |||||||
| 2019-2028 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 47.6% (39.7-55.3) |
52.3% (42.1-61.7) |
40.1% (28.4-50.1) |
33.8% (22.3-44.4) |
23.4% (14.0-32.1) |
37.3% (25.2-47.9) |
36.5% (27.2-44.0) |
| Females | 47.7% (38.9-55.8) |
53.1% (42.8-62.1) |
37.7% (26.7-48.9) |
31.5% (20.5-44.0) |
20.7% (13.2-27.4) |
35.3% (25.3-45.0) |
36.0% (26.4-43.2) |
| Males | 47.5% (37.8-55.5) |
51.7% (39.6-62.7) |
43.0% (30.9-53.1) |
36.4% (22.5-47.2) |
25.8% (14.9-36.4) |
39.2% (25.9-50.9) |
37.4% (26.1-45.9) |
|
| |||||||
| d) Number of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 - Liberal scenario | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| 2009-2018 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 7993 (6148-9813) |
6,365 (4609-8,637) |
420 (304-528) |
483 (334-678) |
266 (169-379) |
284 (176-377) |
41 (28-57) |
| Females | 4953 (3540-6397) |
4162 (2827-5732) |
213 (158-267) |
251 (169-337) |
127 (77-160) |
139 (93-187) |
24 (17-33) |
| Males | 3019 (2260-3975) |
2158 (1580-3348) |
209 (129-266) |
223 (136-352) |
143 (92-218) |
134 (78-205) |
17 (12-27) |
|
| |||||||
| 2019-2028 | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| Overall | 3232 (2301-4181) |
2542 (1661-3702) |
174 (113-240) |
147 (85-221) |
106 (66-159) |
102 (53-154) |
28 (18-41) |
| Females | 2044 (1367-2504) |
1670 (1101-2236) |
87 (61-119) |
77 (47-117) |
48 (31-64) |
50 (29-79) |
16 (10-23) |
| Males | 1187 (828-1673) |
879 (565-1437) |
85 (50-123) |
67 (36-111) |
56 (34-94) |
48 (25-81) |
12 (7-19) |