Predicting long-term fitness of common evening primrose (O. biennis) genotypes in field populations. Plant abundance in 2017 (after soil disturbance) is the average of eight control (ambient insects) and eight insect-suppression plots. Shown are the original genotypes and five novel outcrossed genotypes originating in the experiment (note the log scales, statistical model includes genotype as a random effect; average cumulative fruit production: r2 = 0.88, F1,36.44 = 10.853, P < 0.01). The relationship between cumulative fecundity and plant abundance was not different between treatments (F1,24.36 = 0.539NS, interaction F1,21.77 = 0.346NS).