TABLE 2.
Summary of evidence that would support each of the two theories
| For direct zoonosis | For laboratory-related origin | |
|---|---|---|
| Existing evidence | Sequence similarity to other zoonotic coronaviruses | Evidence of laboratory work with coronaviruses isolated from bats |
| Recent precedent for spillover of coronaviruses (SARS, MERS, canine-feline coronavirus) | Precedent of prior accidents in research laboratories | |
| Precedent for Spike RBD that can bind ACE2 receptor in bat and pangolin viruses | ||
| Potential additional evidence | Discovery of SARS-CoV-2 or a direct ancestor in the wild | Evidence of laboratory work with SARS-CoV-2 or a close ancestor |
| Serological evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in feral animals | Evidence that laboratory passaged a more distantly related virus that acquired the ability to bind ACE2 while retaining SARS-CoV-2 backbone | |
| Discovery of SARS-CoV-2 in an “intermediate” species | ||
| Discovery of SARS-CoV-2 in archival material | Clinical evidence that a researcher(s) was infected with SARS-CoV-2 before Dec 2019 | |
| Finding of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in archival human or animal serum samples | ||