Summary of findings 5. Ectopic pregnancy.

Patient or population: women with threatened miscarriage or a history of recurrent miscarriage Interventions: multiple progestogens (vaginal micronized progesterone, oral micronized progesterone, dydrogesterone and 17‐α‐hydroxyprogesterone) Comparison: placebo and dydrogesterone Outcome: ectopic pregnancy Settings: hospitals
Treatment	Direct evidence		Indirect evidence		Anticipated absolute effects for direct estimate
	RR (95% CI)	Certainty	RR (95% CI)	Certainty	Risk with intervention	Risk with comparator	Risk difference with intervention
Threatened miscarriage
Vaginal micronized progesterone	0.20 [0.01, 4.14]	⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOWa	Unavailable	‐	0 per 1000 (vaginal micronized progesterone)	1 per 1000 (placebo)	1 fewer per 1000 (from 1 fewer to 3 more)
Dydrogesterone	Unavailable	‐	Unavailable	‐	See comment*	See comment**	See comment***
17‐α‐hydroxyprogesterone	Unavailable	‐	Unavailable	‐	See comment*	See comment**	See comment***
Oral micronized progesteroneversus dydrogesterone	Unavailable	‐	Unavailable	‐	See comment*	See comment**	See comment***
Recurrent miscarriage
Vaginal micronized progesterone	0.92 [0.31, 2.72]	⊕⊕⊝⊝ LOWa	Unavailable	‐	15 per 1000 (vaginal micronized progesterone)	16 per 1000 (placebo)	2 fewer per 1000 (from 4 fewer to 23 more)
Dydrogesterone	Unavailable	‐	Unavailable	‐	See comment*	See comment**	See comment***
17‐α‐hydroxyprogesterone	Unavailable	‐	Unavailable	‐	See comment*	See comment**	See comment***
Oral micronized progesteroneversus dydrogesterone	Unavailable	‐	Unavailable	‐	See comment*	See comment**	See comment***
*No included studies or there are no events in included studies to estimate the baseline risk. **Absolute risk with intervention cannot be estimated in the absence of absolute risk with the comparator. ***Risk difference cannot be estimated in the absence of absolute risks with intervention and the comparator. CI: Confidence interval; RR: Risk ratio.
GRADE Working Group grades of evidence High certainty: we are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect. Moderate certainty: we are moderately confident in the effect estimate; the true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different. Low certainty: our confidence in the effect estimate is limited; the true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect. Very low certainty: we have very little confidence in the effect estimate; the true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect.

^a Direct evidence downgraded ‐2 due to severe imprecision (wide 95% CIs and number of events less than 30).