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. 2021 Mar 25;2021(3):CD013717. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013717.pub2

Costantino 2020.

Study characteristics
Study design Mathematical modelling study 
  • Description: poisson process and age‐specific, deterministic extended SEIR model

    • The model assumes a Poisson process to estimate the possible true epidemic curve in China and then calculates the number of infected entering the country. An age‐specific deterministic compartmental (susceptible (S), latent traced (Et), latent untraced (Eu), infectious (I), isolated (Q), recovered (R) and dead (D)) is then used to estimate transmission dynamics due to imported cases. The proportion of asymptomatic infections is assumed to be 34.6% and notified cases reflect only 10% of real infections per day.

Disease COVID‐19
Travel‐related control measure(s) International travel restrictions/bans
  • No travel ban; complete travel ban followed by complete lifting of the ban; complete travel ban followed by partial lifting of the ban (allowing university students, but not tourists, to enter the country)


Date of implementation: 1 February 2020
Country implementing the measure(s) Country protected by the measure: Australia
Country restricted by the measure: China
Outcome(s) Cases avoided due to the measure
  • Outcome 1: number of exported cases from China

  • Outcome 2: number of cases in Australia

  • Outcome 3: number of deaths in Australia

    • Follow‐up: 400 days


Shift in epidemic development 
  • Outcome 4: delay of the epidemic outbreak

  • Follow‐up: 400 days

Notes COI: “The authors declare no conflicts of interest.”
Funding: “This work has no funding.”