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. 2021 Mar 25;2021(3):CD013717. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013717.pub2

McLure 2020.

Study characteristics
Study design Mathematical modelling study 
  • Description: modified version of the model proposed by Costantino 2020. Poisson process and age‐specific, deterministic extended SEIR model

    • An age‐specific deterministic compartmental (susceptible (S), latent traced (Et), latent untraced (Eu), infectious (I), isolated (Q), recovered (R) and dead (D)) is used to estimate transmission dynamics due to imported cases.

    • The proportion of asymptomatic infections is assumed to be 34.6% and notified cases reflect only 10% of real infections per day.

    • Modification: Excluded cases from Hubei after the severe lockdown of Hubei starting on 23 January as this lockdown made it very unlikely that citizens from Hubei travelled to Australia

Disease COVID‐19
Travel‐related control measure(s) International travel restrictions/bans
  • No travel ban; complete travel ban followed by complete lifting of the ban; complete travel ban followed by partial lifting of the ban (allowing university students, but not tourists, to enter the country)


Date of implementation: 1 February 2020
Country implementing the measure(s) Country protected by the measure: Australia
Country restricted by the measure: China
Outcome(s) Cases avoided due to the measure
  • Outcome: number of imported cases

    • Follow‐up: 26 January ‐ 4 April 2020

Notes COI: “None declared.”
Funding: “Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowships (APP1158469 to L.F.K.).”