Pinotti 2020.

Study characteristics
Study design	Mathematical modelling study Description: mathematical model using empirical distributions of transmission parameters Gamma distribution is fitted to model detection delay as a function of the day the case arrived at destination Case arrival accounts for detected and undetected cases. The expected number of imported cases follows a Poisson distribution with an exponential growth parameter which varies with the location of origin and with containment measures in place in the location of origin Index case detection model: multinomial model in which the number of observed clusters with imported index cases, the number of known imported cases causing no onward transmission is compared to the number of cluster for which no index case was identified to estimate the number of undetected imported cases causing no onward transmission (latent variable) and the case detection probability
Disease	COVID‐19
Travel‐related control measure(s)	International travel restrictions Travel restrictions were modeled by assuming a discontinuity in the growth rate Date of implementation: 23 January 2020: Hubei; 29 January 2020: rest of China
Country implementing the measure(s)	Country protected by the measure: n.r. Country restricted by the measure: Hubei Province; China
Outcome(s)	Cases avoided due to the measure Outcome: exportation growth rate Follow‐up: 5 January ‐ 27 February 2020
Notes	COI: “The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.” Funding: “This study is partially funded by the Agence National de la Recherche (ANR, https://anr.fr/) through the project DATAREDUX (ANR‐19‐CE46‐0008‐03) to VC; the European Union with grants RECOVER (H2020‐101003589) and MOOD (H2020‐874850, https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en) to PYB, CP, and VC; REACTing (https://reacting.inserm.fr/) through the COVID‐19 funding to VC; the Municipality of Paris (https://www.paris.fr/) through the programme Emergence(s) to FP and CP; INSERM‐INRIA partnership for research on public health and data science to LDD. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.”