Utsunomiya 2020.

Study characteristics
Study design	Mathematical modelling study  Description: moving Regression (MR) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Data‐driven approach. Framework for the real‐time decomposition of infection growth curves into growth rate and acceleration and classification of stages (“lagging”, “exponential”, “deceleration”, “stationary”) which can be used to track intervention effects over time. Assumes that changes in cases per day are solely attributable to intervention.
Disease	COVID‐19
Travel‐related control measure(s)	International travel restrictions International travel restrictions as defined by the Oxford COVID‐19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) Date of implementation: n.r.
Country implementing the measure(s)	Country protected by the measure: multiple countries (62) Country restricted by the measure: n.r.
Outcome(s)	Shift in epidemic development Outcome: average change in epidemic growth acceleration after intervention implementation Follow‐up: n.r.
Notes	COI: “The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.” Funding: “This study did not receive financial support and was conducted during voluntary social isolation.”