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. 2021 Mar 25;2021(3):CD013717. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013717.pub2

Wells 2020.

Study characteristics
Study design Mathematical modelling study 
  • Description: custom model based on Maximum Likelihood Methods

    • Daily probability that an infected person travels abroad is fitted to observed data and the distribution of incubation period is used to predict importation to other countries weighted by international flight data. Time to the first transmission event was then estimated using the distribution of the serial interval and the incubation period.

Disease COVID‐19
Travel‐related control measure(s) Border closure
  • Lockdown of Wuhan and 15 other cities in Hubei 


Date of implementation: 23 January 2020: Wuhan; 24 January 2020: other cities in China
Country implementing the measure(s) Country protected by the measure: all other countries
Country restricted by the measure: China
Outcome(s) Cases avoided due to the measure
  • Outcome 1: number of exported cases from China

    • Follow‐up: 6 December, 2019 ‐ 15 February 2020


Cases detected due to the measure
  • Outcome 2: number of cases exported from China detected by airport screening 

    • Follow‐up: 6 December, 2019 ‐ 15 February 2020

Notes COI: the authors declare no competing interest
Funding: n.r.