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. 2021 Mar 25;2021(3):CD013717. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013717.pub2

Wilson 2020.

Study characteristics
Study design Mathematical modelling study 
  • Description: stochastic SEIR model

    • Published stochastic SEIR model is used but its application in the context of simulated flights and details on modeling of in‐inflight transmission as well as outbreak modeling in destination country is not disclosed. Passengers and crew members arrive daily at disease‐free destinations from countries with low prevalence. Passengers and crew can be in various stages of infection and cause infections on flight and in New Zealand. 

Disease COVID‐19
Travel‐related control measure(s) Screening at national borders and quarantine of travellers
  • Procedures: various combinations of  symptom based exit screening;  symptom based entry screening; PCR tests on (3.1) day 1, (3.2) day 1 + 8, (3.3) day 3‐12;  contact tracing between PCR test;  self‐reporting of symptoms; quarantine for (6.1) 7 days or (6.2) 14 days 


Date of implementation: n.r.
Country implementing the measure(s) Country protected by the measure: New Zealand (hypothetical disease free area)
Country restricted by the measure: Australia (hypothetical low prevalence area)
Outcome(s) Shift in epidemic development 
  • Outcome: time to outbreak

    • Follow‐up: n.r.

Notes COI: “The authors have no competing interests.”
Funding: “Professor Wilson is supported by the New Zealand Health Research Council (16/443) and Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) funding of the BODE3 Programme (UOOX1406). Professor Michael Baker is supported by a New Zealand Health Research Council grant for research on COVID‐19 (20/1066).”