Table 2.
Generalized additive regression model for assessing associations between climate, land use and socio-economic factors on regional WNV incidence per 100,000 people.
| Clim model | Land-use model | Econ model | Full model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | −2.21*** | −2.13*** | −2.25*** | −2.35*** |
| (0.47) | (0.45) | (0.33) | (0.40) | |
| Mean temp summer (C) | 1.00*** | 1.00* | ||
| (1.00) | (1.00) | |||
| Mean temp winter (C) | 1.96*** | 1.94*** | ||
| (1.99) | (1.99) | |||
| Days of rain in summer | 1.00** | 1.00** | ||
| (1.00) | (1.00) | |||
| Summer surface water extent (30 m2) | 1.60** | 1.02*** | ||
| (1.84) | (1.03) | |||
| Continuous urban fabric % | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| (1.00) | (1.00) | |||
| Discontinuous urban fabric % | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| (1.00) | (1.00) | |||
| Wetlands % | 1.00** | 1.00 | ||
| (1.00) | (1.00) | |||
| Arable land % | 1.81*** | 1.74** | ||
| (1.89) | (1.84) | |||
| Regional GDP index (2007 = 100%) | 1.00* | 1.00 | ||
| (1.00) | (1.00) | |||
| Agri, forest + fish spending (2007 = 100%) | 1.95*** | 1.93*** | ||
| (1.99) | (1.99) | |||
| Waste water management spending (2007 = 100%) | 1.60*** | 1.10*** | ||
| (1.83) | (1.19) | |||
| Spatial lag | 78.44*** | 80.54*** | 88.90*** | 76.19*** |
| (109.60) | (111.42) | (121.08) | (106.52) | |
| Year | 11.73*** | 11.75*** | 11.48*** | 11.56*** |
| (12.00) | (12.00) | (12.00) | (12.00) | |
| AIC | 3952.99 | 3992.59 | 3931.25 | 3907.56 |
| BIC | 4526.68 | 4569.26 | 4560.01 | 4538.85 |
| Log Likelihood | −1875.44 | −1894.71 | −1854.87 | −1842.57 |
| Deviance | 3747.15 | 3895.52 | 3592.25 | 3520.85 |
| Deviance explained | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| Dispersion | 2.85 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 2.73 |
| R^2 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| GCV score | 1900.89 | 1927.27 | 1889.38 | 1871.90 |
| Num. obs. | 2158 | 2158 | 2158 | 2158 |
| Num. smooth terms | 6 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
*
p < 0.1.
**
p < 0.05.
***
p < 0.01.
****p < 0.001.