Table. Actual and Projected Hospital Census, Cumulative Hospitalizations, and Deaths Under a Number of Scenarios.
| Variable | Observed actual No. | Median (75% credible interval) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1a | Scenario 2b | Scenario 3c | Scenario 4d | Scenario 5e | Scenario 6f | ||
| Outcomes by April 15, 2020 | |||||||
| Hospital census, No. | 348 | 1025 (588 to 1745) | 3527 (2197 to 5419) | 6741 (4598 to 9621) | 694 (413 to 1137) | 2088 (1332 to 3260) | 1980 (1296 to 2781) |
| Difference of hospital census, No. | NA | 677 (240 to 1397) | 3179 (1849 to 5071) | 6393 (4250 to 9273) | 346 (65 to 789) | 1740 (984 to 2912) | 1632 (948 to 2433) |
| Change in hospital census, % | NA | 194.5 (69 to 401.4) | 913.5 (531.3 to 1457.2) | 1837.1 (1221.3 to 2664.7) | 99.4 (18.7 to 226.7) | 500 (282.8 to 836.8) | 469 (272.4 to 699.1) |
| Cumulative admissions, No. | 1011 | 3020 (1854 to 4885) | 7992 (5155 to 12 253) | 13 155 (8982 to 18 950) | 2280 (1445 to 3509) | 5221 (3425 to 7924) | 5132 (3391 to 7375) |
| Difference of cumulative admissions, No. | NA | 2009 (843 to 3874) | 6981 (4144 to 11 242) | 12 144 (7971 to 17 939) | 1269 (434 to 2498) | 4210 (2414 to 6913) | 4121 (2380 to 6364) |
| Change in cumulative admissions, % | NA | 198.8 (83.4 to 383.2) | 690.5 (409.9 to 1112) | 1201.2 (788.4 to 1774.4) | 125.5 (42.9 to 247.1) | 416.4 (238.8 to 683.8) | 407.6 (235.4 to 629.5) |
| Cumulative deaths, No. | 115 | 219 (141 to 337) | 443 (293 to 676) | 589 (400 to 871) | 181 (120 to 266) | 327 (220 to 479) | 326 (218 to 466) |
| Difference in cumulative deaths, No. | NA | 104 (26 to 222) | 328 (178 to 561) | 474 (285 to 756) | 66 (5 to 151) | 212 (105 to 364) | 211 (103 to 351) |
| Change in cumulative deaths, % | NA | 90.4 (22.6 to 193) | 285.2 (154.8 to 487.8) | 412.2 (247.8 to 657.4) | 57.4 (4.3 to 131.3) | 184.3 (91.3 to 316.5) | 183.5 (89.6 to 305.2) |
| Outcomes by May 15, 2020 | |||||||
| Hospital census, No. | 221 | 640 (269 to 1438) | 1454 (809 to 2406) | 3141 (1937 to 4707) | 254 (120 to 539) | 768 (428 to 1333) | 406 (265 to 621) |
| Difference of hospital census, No. | NA | 419 (48 to 1217) | 1233 (588 to 2185) | 2920 (1716 to 4486) | 33 (–101 to 318) | 547 (207 to 1112) | 185 (44 to 400) |
| Change in hospital census, % | NA | 189.6 (21.7 to 550.7) | 557.9 (266.1 to 988.7) | 1321.3 (776.5 to 2029.9) | 14.9 (–45.7 to 143.9) | 247.5 (93.7 to 503.2) | 83.7 (19.9 to 181) |
| Cumulative admissions, No. | 1865 | 6584 (3459 to 11 967) | 18 079 (11 479 to 27 107) | 42 157 (30 988 to 54 882) | 3760 (2209 to 6400) | 10 427 (6511 to 15 959) | 7980 (5396 to 11 301) |
| Difference of cumulative admissions, No. | NA | 4719 (1594 to 10 102) | 16 214 (9614 to 25 242) | 40 292 (29 123 to 53 017) | 1895 (344 to 4535) | 8562 (4646 to 14 094) | 6115 (3531 to 9436) |
| Change in cumulative admissions, % | NA | 253 (85.5 to 541.7) | 869.4 (515.5 to 1353.5) | 2160.4 (1561.6 to 2842.7) | 101.6 (18.4 to 243.2) | 459.1 (249.1 to 755.7) | 327.9 (189.3 to 506) |
| Cumulative deaths, No. | 384 | 898 (491 to 1578) | 2517 (1598 to 3785) | 5937 (4347 to 7675) | 558 (330 to 910) | 1485 (946 to 2251) | 1215 (827 to 1715) |
| Difference in cumulative deaths, No. | NA | 514 (107 to 1194) | 2133 (1214 to 3401) | 5553 (3963 to 7291) | 174 (–54 to 526) | 1101 (562 to 1867) | 831 (443 to 1331) |
| Change in cumulative deaths, % | NA | 133.9 (27.9 to 310.9) | 555.5 (316.1 to 885.7) | 1446.1 (1032 to 1898.7) | 45.3 (–14.1 to 137) | 286.7 (146.4 to 486.2) | 216.4 (115.4 to 346.6) |
| Outcomes by June 15, 2020 | |||||||
| Hospital census, No. | 99 | 199 (60 to 582) | 233 (114 to 464) | 350 (204 to 560) | 53 (19 to 163) | 124 (60 to 257) | 50 (31 to 81) |
| Difference of hospital census, No. | NA | 100 (–39 to 483) | 134 (15 to 365) | 251 (105 to 461) | –46 (–80 to 64) | 25 (–39 to 158) | –49 (–68 to –18) |
| Change in hospital census, % | NA | 101 (–39.4 to 487.9) | 135.4 (15.2 to 368.7) | 253.5 (106.1 to 465.7) | –46.5 (–80.8 to 64.6) | 25.3 (–39.4 to 159.6) | –49.5 (–68.7 to –18.2) |
| Cumulative admissions, No. | 2246 | 8005 (3973 to 15 236) | 19 657 (12 484 to 29 290) | 42 857 (31 368 to 55 811) | 4124 (2353 to 7256) | 11 164 (6972 to 17 204) | 8092 (5489 to 11 487) |
| Difference of cumulative admissions, No. | NA | 5759 (1727 to 12 990) | 17 411 (10 238 to 27 044) | 40 611 (29 122 to 53 565) | 1878 (107 to 5010) | 8918 (4726 to 14 958) | 5846 (3243 to 9241) |
| Change in cumulative admissions, % | NA | 256.4 (76.9 to 578.4) | 775.2 (455.8 to 1204.1) | 1808.1 (1296.6 to 2384.9) | 83.6 (4.8 to 223.1) | 397.1 (210.4 to 666) | 260.3 (144.4 to 411.4) |
| Cumulative deaths, No. | 482 | 1304 (658 to 2426) | 3292 (2104 to 4905) | 7331 (5390 to 9543) | 695 (399 to 1199) | 1904 (1181 to 2921) | 1396 (952 to 1980) |
| Difference in cumulative deaths, No. | NA | 822 (176 to 1944) | 2810 (1622 to 4423) | 6849 (4908 to 9061) | 213 (–83 to 717) | 1422 (699 to 2439) | 914 (470 to 1498) |
| Change in cumulative deaths, % | NA | 170.5 (36.5 to 403.3) | 583 (336.5 to 917.6) | 1421 (1018.3 to 1879.9) | 44.2 (–17.2 to 148.8) | 295 (145 to 506) | 189.6 (97.5 to 310.8) |
| Peak hospital census, No. and date | 381 (Apr 20) | 1056 (Apr 19) | 3670 (Apr 18) | 10 377 (Apr 23) | 700 (Apr 13) | 2129 (Apr 18) | 1980 (Apr 15) |
| Difference of peak hospital census, No. | NA | 675 | 3289 | 9996 | 319 | 1748 | 1599 |
| Difference of peak hospital census, % | NA | 177.20 | 863.30 | 2623 | 83.70 | 458.80 | 419.70 |
Abbreviation: NA, not applicable.
aDelaying policy interventions by 1 week.
bDelaying policy interventions by 2 weeks.
cDelaying policy interventions by 4 weeks.
dDelaying policy interventions by 1 week but with 25% reduction in reproductive number due to spontaneous behavior change.
eDelaying policy interventions by 2 weeks but with 25% reduction in reproductive number due to spontaneous behavior change.
fScenario 5 but with an additional 50% reduction in reproductive number when the hospitalization number reaches 800 patients.