Table 2.

Results of the non-linear Poisson mixed model of the number of daily COVID-19 deaths.

Variable	Estimate	Standard error	P value
Intercept	0.467	0.202	0.028
Logarithm of the number of daily COVID-19 deaths 7 days beforea	0.926	0.007	<0.001
Logarithm of the number of COVID-19 deaths 7 days before/14 days before	0.158	0.015	<0.001
Proportion of 20A (EU2) variantb	0.012	0.036	0.746
Proportion of 20E (EU1) variantb	−0.032	0.046	0.501
Proportion of 20I (B.1.1.7) variantb	0.059	0.033	0.084
Max daily temperatureb	−0.005	0.001	<0.001
Mean daily wind speedb	−0.002	0.002	0.351
Arrivals at two biggest airports [in thousands]b	0.709	0.085	<0.001
Mobility change from prepandemicb,d	0.753	0.064	<0.001
Proportion of inhabitants aged ≥65 yearsc	−1.238	0.930	0.193
Diabetes prevalencec	0.544	1.293	0.677
Cardiovascular death ratec	0.023	0.023	0.322
Vaccination effectivenessb	0.720	0.132	<0.001
Variance for RE on intercept	0.014	0.006	0.023
Variance for RE on mobility	0.036	0.023	0.126

AIC = 30,184.

Abbreviations: AIC = Akaike's information criterion; mln = million; RE = random effects.

Non-linear Poisson mixed model of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths per 1 mln inhabitants, with country-specific random effects on intercept and mobility. Daily data for 32 countries were included, from 29 January 2020 to 15 April 2021. Assumed time to symptoms onset is 7 days; assumed time between symptoms onset and death is 14 days.

^aTime-varying variable with a 7-days lag.

^bTime-varying variable with a 21-days lag.

^cFixed variable.

^dAverage mobility change from prepandemic level calculated across retail/recreation, transit stations, and groceries/pharmacies [0.01].