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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Spine J. 2021 Mar 3;21(10):1643–1648. doi: 10.1016/j.spinee.2021.02.024

Table 1. Net benefit of the two models for predicting facture.

Net benefit is given at a threshold probability of 25% along with that for the clinical alternatives of recommending surgery for all or no patients.

Strategy  True positives: patients recommended for surgery who would otherwise get a fracture  False positives: patients recommended for surgery who will not get a fracture Net benefit
Recommend surgery for all patients 306 694 (306–694 x (0.25 ÷ 0.75)) ÷ 1000 = 0.0747
Recommend surgery if risk ⩾ 25% according to Model A 240 335 (240–335 x (0.25 ÷ 0.75)) ÷ 1000 = 0.128
Recommend surgery if risk ⩾ 25% according to Model B 136 84 (136 – 84 x (0.25 ÷ 0.75)) ÷ 1000 = 0.108
Surgery for no patients 0 0 (0 – 0 x (0.25 ÷ 0.75)) ÷ 1000 = 0