Fig. 4.

Case counts can suggest drastically different dynamics than infection counts. Nationwide predicted weekly number of new infections (black curves and shades) among adults aged 20 years or older and weekly reported cases (blue curves) for all ages over time in Afghanistan, Angola, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Guatemala, and Iran. Black curves show prediction medians, and dark and bright shades show 50% and 95% confidence intervals, respectively. For easier comparison, case counts are shifted backward by 1 week (corresponding roughly to the average incubation time; Linton et al., 2020).