Table 3.
Estimated number of breast cancer, cervical cancer, and colorectal cancer deaths, 2020–30
|
Breast |
Cervix |
Colorectal |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID–19 | No COVID–19 | Excess | COVID–19 | No COVID–19 | Excess | COVID–19 | No COVID–19 | Excess | |
| 2020 | 1544 (1413 to 1677) | 1693 (1534 to 1845) | −149 (−205 to −94) | 558 (495 to 620) | 588 (523 to 671) | −30 (−82 to 12) | 2275 (2127 to 2429) | 2593 (2404 to 2857) | −319 (−466 to −181) |
| 2021 | 1702 (1485 to 1984) | 1786 (1634 to 1931) | −84 (−267 to 123) | 663 (510 to 852) | 590 (514 to 682) | 73 (−81 to 233) | 2638 (2042 to 3539) | 2908 (2624 to 3319) | −269 (−811 to 506) |
| 2022 | 2250 (1881 to 2698) | 1891 (1701 to 2067) | 359 (102 to 705) | 760 (603 to 1012) | 594 (501 to 719) | 166 (26 to 375) | 4173 (3297 to 5468) | 3280 (2829 to 3991) | 893 (349 to 1827) |
| 2023 | 2150 (1942 to 2384) | 1998 (1809 to 2188) | 152 (−4 to 300) | 623 (488 to 845) | 600 (508 to 751) | 23 (−41 to 114) | 4080 (3360 to 5250) | 3718 (3145 to 4842) | 362 (−63 to 778) |
| 2024 | 2236 (2024 to 2471) | 2122 (1934 to 2339) | 114 (−19 to 259) | 618 (486 to 892) | 615 (480 to 844) | 3 (−62 to 72) | 4439 (3617 to 6301) | 4290 (3480 to 6282) | 148 (−112 to 402) |
| 2025 | 2325 (2095 to 2617) | 2249 (2025 to 2556) | 77 (−55 to 222) | 633 (458 to 966) | 635 (451 to 954) | −2 (−62 to 68) | 5032 (3809 to 8036) | 4969 (3820 to 8076) | 63 (−164 to 270) |
| 2026 | 2432 (2168 to 2734) | 2369 (2114 to 2691) | 63 (−65 to 177) | 665 (456 to 1080) | 667 (442 to 1148) | −2 (−73 to 71) | 5845 (4229 to 10 629) | 5828 (4258 to 10 670) | 17 (−220 to 259) |
| 2027 | 2557 (2311 to 2999) | 2522 (2253 to 2956) | 36 (−97 to 145) | 709 (430 to 1374) | 710 (443 to 1357) | −1 (−45 to 62) | 6916 (4683 to 14 244) | 6929 (4581 to 14 259) | −13 (−219 to 236) |
| 2028 | 2696 (2378 to 3230) | 2683 (2368 to 3180) | 13 (−145 to 149) | 761 (415 to 1601) | 768 (432 to 1632) | −8 (−86 to 87) | 8314 (5180 to 19 939) | 8336 (5091 to 20 000) | −22 (−243 to 186) |
| 2029 | 2864 (2468 to 3463) | 2828 (2465 to 3411) | 37 (−90 to 196) | 842 (413 to 2016) | 853 (413 to 2096) | −10 (−95 to 62) | 10 174 (5639 to 28 046) | 10 198 (5763 to 28 074) | −23 (−237 to 193) |
| 2030 | 3038 (2604 to 3770) | 3017 (2607 to 3666) | 21 (−126 to 182) | 951 (410 to 2533) | 949 (405 to 2521) | 2 (−72 to 83) | 12 617 (6363 to 39 626) | 12 654 (6292 to 39 910) | −37 (−317 to 262) |
| Total: 2020–30 | 25 795 (23 141 to 29 303) | 25 159 (22 812 to 28 477) | 636 (179 to 1102) | 7783 (5406 to 13 187) | 7569 (5216 to 12 923) | 214 (−38 to 497) | 66 504 (45 718 to 141 489) | 65 703 (44 808 to 140 540) | 800 (67 to 1783) |
| Total: 2022–30 | 22 549 (20 015 to 26 001) | 21 680 (19 557 to 24 839) | 869 (418 to 1301) | 6562 (4255 to 11 884) | 6391 (4174 to 11 625) | 171 (−61 to 450) | 61 591 (40 747 to 13 6218) | 60 202 (39 681 to 13 4809) | 1389 (364 to 2567) |
Data are mean deaths (95% uncertainty interval).