Table 2.
Parameters applied in the Markov model, their distributions and the values used to estimate the distributions
| Parameter | Value (variation) | Distribution | Distribution values used in PSA Mean (SE) |
Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard ratios | |||||
| Effect of intervention (95% CI) | 0.74 (0.53–1.03) | Lognormal | 0.74 (0.17) | [26] | |
| T2D-specific mortality risk (95% CI) | HR 2.47 (2.42–3.06) (women) | Lognormal | 2.47 (0.04) | [27] | |
| HR 1.93 (1.79–2.07) (men) | 1.93 (0.05) | ||||
| Mortality risk associated with T2D with complications | HR 2.36 (1.70–3.29) | Lognormal | 2.36 (0.41) | [28] | |
| All-cause mortalitya | Based on age and gender | – | – | [29] | |
| Utilities | |||||
| Baseline utilities (EQ-5D-3L) |
Women (Age, Utility, SE) |
Beta |
Alpha (Age, value) Women |
Beta (Age, value) Women |
[30] |
| 30–44 0.906 (0.003) | 30–44 8573 | 30–44, 889 | |||
| 45–54 0.865 (0.005) | 45–54 4040 | 45–54, 631 | |||
| 55–64 0.810 (0.006) | 55–64 3463 | 55–64, 812 | |||
| 65+ 0.770 (0.008) | 65+ 2130 | 65+ 636 | |||
|
Men (Age, Utility, SE) |
Men | Men | |||
| 30–44 0.917 (0.003) | 30–44 7755 | 30–44, 702 | |||
| 45–54 0.876 (0.005) | 45–54 3806 | 45–54, 539 | |||
| 55–64 0.821 (0.006) | 55–64 3351 | 55–64, 731 | |||
| 65+ 0.781 (0.008) | 65+ 2087 | 65+ 585 | |||
| Disutility of T2D (EQ-5D-3L) (SE) | 0.041 (0.012) | Beta |
Alpha 11.19 |
Beta 261.9 |
[31] |
| Weighted disutility of T2D complications (EQ-5D-3L)b | 0.119 (0.089–0.149) | Beta | 0.119 (0.015) |
Disutility values of individual complications [32–36] Proportion of complications [37] |
|
aAll-cause mortality data is shown in additional file 7
bFor variables without available confidence interval, a variation of ±25% has been used as an estimate. In these cases, SE has been calculated as: