Table 1.
Symbol | Definition | Initial Value | Reference |
---|---|---|---|
K | Number of age groups | 3 | |
Ni | Subgroup population size | ||
14 566 547 | [58] | ||
: (0-19) | 3 141 693 | [58] | |
: (20-59) | 7 977 131 | [58] | |
: (60+) | 3 447 723 | [58] | |
cij | Number of daily contacts with Group j per member of Group i | Table 2 | |
p | Transmission probability per contagious contact | Section 2.5 | |
βij | Effective contact-rate, i,j ∈ {1,…,K} | cij⁎p | |
σ | Time from exposure until contagious (days) | 1/2.5 | [32] |
ψ | Time from contagious until symptomatic (days) | 1/3.5a | [32], [59] |
α1 | Proportion of permanently asymptomatic cases in N1 | 0.963 | [35] |
α2 | Proportion of permanently asymptomatic cases in N2 | 0.7 | [35] |
α3 | Proportion of permanently asymptomatic cases in N3 | 0.35 | [35] |
ϵ | Proportion of compliance with isolation | 0.95 | assumption |
κ | Isolation delay | 1 | assumption |
γ | Recovery/removal rate | 1/7 | [31] |
The parameter ψ is estimated from the relationship 1/σ + 1/ψ = incubation period, where 1/σ = 2.5 days and incubation period = 6 days.