TABLE 4.

ARDL model results

Bağımlı Değişken: InGAUTRY
Estimation Results of ARDL (1,2,0) Model
Variable	Coefficient	SE	t‐statistic	Prob.
InGAUTRY(−1)	0.9639*	0.0155	62.1679	0.0000
InC19	0.0051	0.0152	0.3380	0.0347
InC19 (−1)	0.0397**	0.0195	2.0367	0.0433
InC19 (−2)	−0.0338*	0.0134	−2.9254	0.0039
InCDS	0.0150	0.0115	1.3032	0.1944
C	−0.0116	0.1578	−0.0739	0.9412

ARDL model long‐term forecast results
Variables	Coefficient	SE	t‐statistic	Prob.
InC19	0.1540*	0.0582	2.6433	0.0090
InCDS	0.4184	0.3552	1.1776	0.2407
C	−0.3240	4.4438	−0.0729	0.9420

Descriptive statistics
$R^2$	0.9850	$X_{\mathit{BG}}^2$	0.8146	[0.4447]
Adjusted $R^2$	0.9845	$X_{\mathit{BPG}}^2$	2.2171	[0.5051]
F statistics (Probability)	0.0000*	$X_{\mathit{JB}}^2$	0.6122	[0.5782]
DW	2.1354	$X_{\mathit{\text{Ramsey}}}^2$	1.7817	[0.1839]

Note: Indicates significance * at 1%, ** at 5% and *** at 10% levels of significance, respectively. $X_{\mathit{BG}}^2$: autocorrelation test, $X_{\mathit{BPG}}^2$: heteroscedasticity test $X_{\mathit{JB}}^2$: Normality test, $X_{\mathit{\text{Ramsey}}}^2$: modeling error in regression test.