Table 3.
Discriminatory ability of likelihood-based boosting models to predict incident atrial fibrillation compared with the published Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE-AF) model by category of eGFR
| Predictive Modeling Strategy | N at Risk (N Events) | C-Index (95% Confidence Interval) | Difference from CHARGE-AF C Index (95% Confidence Interval) |
|---|---|---|---|
| eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 | 505 (53) | ||
| CHARGE-AF | 0.640 (0.56 to 0.72) | NA | |
| Likelihood-based boosting | |||
| Clinical variables only | 0.641 (0.57 to 0.71) | 0.001 (–0.04 to 0.04) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP | 0.682 (0.61 to 0.76) | 0.043 (–0.01 to 0.09) | |
| Clinical variables + hsTnT | 0.667 (0.60 to 0.74) | 0.027 (–0.02 to 0.07) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.682 (0.61 to 0.76) | 0.043 (–0.01 to 0.09) | |
| eGFR 30 to <45 ml/min per 1.73 m2 | 977 (112) | ||
| CHARGE-AF | 0.649 (0.60 to 0.70) | NA | |
| Likelihood-based boosting | |||
| Clinical variables only | 0.649 (0.60 to 0.70) | 0.000 (–0.03 to 0.03) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP | 0.686 (0.64 to 0.73) | 0.037 (0.00 to 0.07)a | |
| Clinical variables + hsTnT | 0.652 (0.60 to 0.70) | 0.003 (–0.03 to 0.04) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.686 (0.64 to 0.73) | 0.037 (0.00 to 0.07)a | |
| eGFR 45 to <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 | 861 (72) | ||
| CHARGE-AF | 0.673 (0.61 to 0.73) | NA | |
| Likelihood-based boosting | |||
| Clinical variables only | 0.654 (0.59 to 0.72) | −0.019 (–0.06 to 0.02) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP | 0.729 (0.67 to 0.79) | 0.056 (0.01 to 0.10)a | |
| Clinical variables + hsTnT | 0.671 (0.61 to 0.73) | −0.002 (–0.04 to 0.04) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.733 (0.67 to 0.79) | 0.060 (0.01 to 0.11)a | |
| eGFR≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 | 423 (22) | ||
| CHARGE-AF | 0.750 (0.64 to 0.86) | NA | |
| Likelihood-based boosting | |||
| Clinical variables only | 0.693 (0.56 to 0.82) | −0.057 (–0.12 to 0.01) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP | 0.761 (0.65 to 0.88) | 0.011 (–0.08 to 0.10) | |
| Clinical variables + hsTnT | 0.728 (0.61 to 0.85) | −0.022 (–0.09 to 0.05) | |
| Clinical variables + NT-proBNP + hsTnT | 0.761 (0.64 to 0.88) | 0.011 (–0.08 to 0.10) |
The entry for CHARGE-AF is C index and the associated 95% bootstrap confidence interval; all other entries are ten-fold cross-validated C indices or difference in C indices and associated 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. CHARGE-AF models predict atrial fibrillation from age, White race/ethnicity, height, weight, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking, use of antihypertensives, diabetes, congestive heart failure, and myocardial infarction. CHARGE-AF, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation; NA, not applicable; NT-proBNP, N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide; hsTnT, high-sensitivity troponin T.
Indicates statistical significance at the α=0.05 level.