Table 2.
Individual-level reported probability of inflation within stated interval.
| 1-yr | 3-yr | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| < 0% | [0%, 2%] | [2%, 4%] | > 4% | <0% | [0%, 2%] | [2%, 4%] | >4% | |
| Pre-pandemic | −0.14 | 2.52∗∗∗(0.94) | −0.75 | −1.63 | −0.80 | 1.78∗ | −0.61 | −0.37 |
| (0.92) | (0.97) | (1.21) | (1.00) | (0.91) | (1.01) | (1.21) | ||
| Initial period | 8.80∗∗∗ | −5.37∗∗∗ | −9.42∗∗∗ | 5.99∗∗∗ | 5.49∗∗∗ | −1.71 | −6.74∗∗∗ | 2.96∗ |
| (1.68) | (1.32) | (1.35) | (1.89) | (1.44) | (1.35) | (1.40) | (1.76) | |
| Lockdown | 8.33∗∗∗ | −6.17∗∗∗ | −10.24∗∗∗ | 8.08∗∗∗ | 2.51∗∗ | −2.58∗ | −5.64∗∗∗ | 5.71∗∗∗ |
| (1.32) | (1.16) | (1.11) | (1.53) | (1.27) | (1.32) | (1.25) | (1.49) | |
| Reopening | 4.56∗∗∗ | −4.63∗∗∗ | −8.15∗∗∗ | 8.22∗∗∗ | 2.23 | −1.99∗ | −4.52∗∗∗ | 4.28∗∗∗ |
| (1.51) | (1.25) | (1.24) | (1.68) | (1.40) | (1.18) | (1.35) | (1.62) | |
| Resurgence | 3.11∗∗ | −5.63∗∗∗ | −5.54∗∗∗ | 8.05∗∗∗ | 0.33 | −3.62∗∗∗ | −1.94 | 5.24∗∗∗ |
| (1.39) | (1.30) | (1.38) | (1.68) | (1.26) | (1.26) | (1.48) | (1.69) | |
| N | 54,946 | 54,946 | 54,946 | 54,946 | 55,082 | 55,082 | 55,082 | 55,082 |
| R2 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| Dependent variable mean | 16.45 | 22.27 | 28.13 | 33.15 | 17.85 | 21.30 | 26.78 | 34.07 |
| Constant | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Month-of-year FE | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Post-2018 dummy | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Individual FE | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Survey tenure FE | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Notes: The table shows the estimated impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the probability assigned by individual respondents to different buckets for one-year and three-year inflation. The sample consists of individual survey responses covering the period from January 1, 2017 through August 31, 2020. The pre-pandemic period is from January 1, 2020 through March 10, 2020. The initial period is from March 11, 2020 through March 26, 2020. The lockdown period is from March 27, 2020 through May 15, 2020. The reopening period is from May 16, 2020 through June 30, 2020. The resurgence period is from July 1, 2020 through August 31, 2020. The Post-2018 dummy is equal to 1 for survey responses recorded after 2018 (January 1, 2019 through August 31, 2020). The data are not trimmed. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the individual level. ∗p < 0.1,∗∗p < 0.05,∗∗∗p < 0.01.