Table 3.
Performance measures for the ACR 1997, SLICC 2012 and ACR/EULAR 2019 criteria according to first visit, first year and latest periods
| Criteria | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | ROC (95% CI) | Accuracy (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACR 1997 | ||||||
| 1st visit | 49% (40–59%) | 96% (87–99%) | 97% (88–99%) | 46% (36–56%) | 0.73 (0.67–0.78) | 64% (56–71%) |
| 1st year | 57% (47–66%) | 96% (87–99%) | 97% (90–99%) | 50% (40–60%) | 0.76 (0.71–0.82) | 69% (61–76%) |
| Latest | 66% (56–74%) | 96% (87–99%) | 97% (91–99%) | 56% (45–66%) | 0.81 (0.76–0.86) | 75% (68–81%) |
| SLICC | ||||||
| 1st visit | 76% (67–84%) | 94% (84–99%) | 97% (91–99%) | 64% (52–75%) | 0.85 (0.80–0.90) | 82% (75–87%) |
| 1st year | 84% (76–90%) | 94% (84–99%) | 97% (91–99%) | 73% (60–83%) | 0.89 (0.84–0.94) | 87% (81–92%) |
| Latest | 86% (78–92%) | 94% (84–99%) | 97% (92–99%) | 75% (63–85%) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 88% (83–93%) |
| ACR/EULAR | ||||||
| 1st visit | 81% (73–88%) | 92% (81–98%) | 96% (90–99%) | 69% (57–80%) | 0.87 (0.82–0.92) | 85% (78–90%) |
| 1st year | 88% (80–93%) | 90% (79–97%) | 95% (89–98%) | 77% (64–87%) | 0.89 (0.84–0.94) | 88% (83–93%) |
| Latest | 89% (82–94%) | 90% (79–97%) | 95% (89–99%) | 79% (67–89%) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 90% (84–94%) |
| ACR/EULARa | ||||||
| 1st visit | 76% (67–84%) | 96% (87–99%) | 98% (92–99%) | 65% (53–75%) | 0.86 (0.81–0.91) | 83% (76–88%) |
| 1st year | 83% (74–89%) | 96% (87–99%) | 98% (93–99%) | 71% (59–81%) | 0.89 (0.85–0.94) | 87% (81–92%) |
| Latest | 84% (76–90%) | 96% (87–99%) | 98% (93–99%) | 73% (61–83%) | 0.90 (0.86–0.94) | 88% (83–93%) |
ACR/EULARa, a score of ≥13 as compared to the traditional cut of score of ≥10
The median disease duration was 5 (2.5–9) years with a range of 1–19 years
ACR American College of Rheumatology 1997, SLICC Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics, EULAR European League Against Rheumatism, CI Confidence interval, PPV Positive predictive value, NPV Negative predictive value, ROC Area under the received operating curve