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. 2021 Sep 9;12:5351. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25505-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a Mean distribution of winter survival in the present 5 years. b Changes in winter survival over the past 50 years. c, d Changes in winter survival for future climate scenarios with a predicted +2 °C or +6 °C increase in mean temperatures. e Predicted global overwintering land area, and f expanded overwintering area at given past and possible future warming scenarios. g Global annual dynamics of low-temperature degree-days (LTDD) in the overwintering marginal belt. In the tendency line, R² indicates the variability explained by the regression line. P value was calculated using two-sided Fisher’s test. All predictions are based on the field validated LTDD-dependent survival model. Source data are provided as a Source data file.